The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.53% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.7%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.87% yesterday, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.85%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday was bad for mortgage rates. Some of that was down to fading hopes of a significant de-escalation in the War in Iran anytime soon.
But some was a result of the likely economic implications of the war. Yesterday morning, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast that the U.S. inflation rate would climb to 4.2% for 2026, more than double the Federal Reserve's target, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, there was weak demand at an auction of 2-year U.S. Treasury bills on Tuesday. "The Iran conflict is increasing U.S. borrowing costs and putting stress on the economy through higher prices and a drop in employment," suggested MarketWatch.
Unfortunately, we struggle to see much likelihood of volatility in mortgage rates decreasing before the war ends. And, unless the direction of the conflict changes radically, we expect most of that volatility to continue to drive those rates higher.Scroll on down for information about today's economic report, including its possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.02% | +0.52% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.74% | +0.02% | +0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 7.07% | +0.02% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +0.01% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.1% | +0.01% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.85% | 6.86% | +0.02% | +0.38% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.1% | +0.04% | +0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.6% | +0.02% | +0.53% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.7% | +0.02% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 7.06% | +0.02% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.16% | +0.01% | +0.42% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.15% | 6.18% | +0.04% | +0.35% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team provided its preview for today:
"For consumers, the final release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicator will give a clearer read on reactions to rising gas prices and tumultuous headlines. The indicator likely closed the month lower than in its preliminary release as expectations for personal finances weakened, and as inflation expectations rose. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation may have held up better, since income tax refunds are up 12% on the year so far this tax season."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often vary from market expectations because the latter are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. If you skipped it, read Comerica Bank's helpful analysis above.
Markets expect this morning's final sentiment index for March to fall to 54.0, down from an initial reading of 55.5 earlier in the month.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Consumer sentiment reports certainly can move mortgage rates, but this one may be overshadowed by war news, as so many other economic reports published in March have been.
