The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.53% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.7%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.87%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.85%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
It was no surprise that mortgage rates nudged lower yesterday. They've been rising and falling (but mostly rising) since the war in Iran started.
This volatility has been frustrating for observers because it appears irrational. Yesterday, for example, markets picked up a diplomacy vibe, meaning that they perceived that a negotiated settlement was a realistic possibility.
However, we find it hard to see that a diplomatic solution was more likely that day than on Tuesday. And both days brought plenty of bellicose threats from the U.S., Israel and Iran.
In other words, mortgage rates are currently even more unpredictable than they normally are. You can't even be sure that war news will be perceived by markets in the same way we ordinary folk understand it.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic report, including its possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.02% | +0.52% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.74% | +0.02% | +0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 7.07% | +0.02% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +0.01% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.1% | +0.01% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.85% | 6.86% | +0.02% | +0.38% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.1% | +0.04% | +0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.6% | +0.02% | +0.53% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.7% | +0.02% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 7.06% | +0.02% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.16% | +0.01% | +0.42% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.15% | 6.18% | +0.04% | +0.35% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team provided its regular preview for this week:
"Surveys out this week will provide an early read on the reaction from businesses and consumers to the war with Iran. For businesses, the preliminary releases of S&P Global’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) are the first major data on sentiment since the outbreak of hostilities. They will likely report faster increases in input costs as prices for diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, and other petroleum products spike. Business order books will receive more attention than usual.
"For consumers, the final release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicator will give a clearer read on reactions to rising gas prices and tumultuous headlines. The indicator likely closed the month lower than in its preliminary release as expectations for personal finances weakened, and as inflation expectations rose. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation may have held up better, since income tax refunds are up 12% on the year so far this tax season."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often vary from market expectations because the latter are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It comprises weekly data that show the number of new claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Mar. 21.
Occasionally, these reports affect mortgage rates, though usually only when they immediately precede an official jobs report. Most of the time, markets see these reports as too "noisy" (easily influenced by relatively minor events) to be worthy of close attention.
Markets expect this morning's initial jobless claims to show 210,000 new applications that week, slightly more than the 205,000 over the previous seven days.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
We'll be surprised if today's report moves them far — or at all. With the war and oil prices dominating everything, few reports get much attention at the moment.
