The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.51% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, down by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.85%, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.83%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates nudged up yesterday, with Mortgage News Daily saying they ended the day at their highest level since last August.
So far in March, pretty much all the movements in oil prices, markets and mortgage rates have been in response to war news. Talk of de-escalation and a rapid ending tends to drag those rates lower, while bellicose rhetoric and the prospect of a long conflict push them higher.
Looking back over recent editions of this bulletin, we were almost impressed by our own prescience — right up until we realized we were merely stating the blindingly obvious. Still, we'll repeat some recent lines because they still hold good:
"Both good and bad news have had limited lifespans since the war started. Markets hate uncertainty. They rise or fall, often sharply, with each new war announcement or even passing comment. So, expect a volatile week for mortgage rates. Recently, they have often tracked oil prices, so keep an eye on those, too."
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | -0.04% | +0.54% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | -0.09% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.85% | 7.06% | -0.06% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.15% | -0.05% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.94% | 6.09% | -0.02% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.83% | 6.84% | -0.02% | +0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.06% | -0.18% | +0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | -0.05% | +0.53% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.69% | -0.09% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.83% | 7.04% | -0.05% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6% | 6.15% | -0.07% | +0.41% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.1% | 6.14% | -0.08% | +0.21% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team provided its regular preview for this week:
"Surveys out this week will provide an early read on the reaction from businesses and consumers to the war with Iran. For businesses, the preliminary releases of S&P Global’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) are the first major data on sentiment since the outbreak of hostilities. They will likely report faster increases in input costs as prices for diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, and other petroleum products spike. Business order books will receive more attention than usual.
"For consumers, the final release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicator will give a clearer read on reactions to rising gas prices and tumultuous headlines. The indicator likely closed the month lower than in its preliminary release as expectations for personal finances weakened, and as inflation expectations rose. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation may have held up better, since income tax refunds are up 12% on the year so far this tax season."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often vary from market expectations because the latter are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's a measure of inflation, which normally guarantees markets' attention.
However, so far this month, markets have been closely focused on the war. So, Wall Street might all but ignore today's report, especially as it's usually one of the less influential inflation gauges.
The report is February's import price index (IPI), which measures price changes in imported goods and services. Markets expect those prices to have risen 0.7% that month, faster than January's 0.2%.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
With inflation reports, lower-than-expected numbers pretty much always help those rates to fall — assuming markets notice.
