The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.47% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.67%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.8% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.82%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Last week was grim for mortgage rates. The average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ended Friday at 6.47%, up from 6.32% on Monday, according to ICanBuy. Mortgage News Daily (MND) reckons they're currently even higher, with those numbers at 6.53% (the highest since last September) and 6.41% respectively.
Almost all the damage has been done by the war in Iran, although last week's (pre-war) inflation data won't have helped. And the uncertainty surrounding that war is, if anything, growing.
Is the United States government de-escalating? Will it soon declare victory and withdraw? Will it attack Iranian power stations if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed? Or will it double down, possibly putting boots on the ground?
All those ideas have been floated in the last week or so, and many argue that there are important strategic advantages in keeping the enemy guessing. However, when the enemy is guessing, so are markets.
And markets hate uncertainty. They rise or fall, often sharply, with each new war announcement or even passing comment. So, expect a volatile week for mortgage rates. Recently, they have often tracked oil prices, so keep an eye on those, too.
Scroll on down for information about the war and today's economic report, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.47% | 6.5% | +0% | +0.46% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.72% | +0% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7.01% | +0% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.94% | 6.08% | +0% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.93% | +0% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.82% | 6.84% | +0% | +0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.06% | +0% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0% | +0.47% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.62% | 5.67% | +0% | +0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | +0% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.93% | 6.08% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.13% | +0% | +0.17% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
War in Iran
"First, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target," Ip said. "Second, the jump in oil prices could push it farther from the target without slowing demand much. Third, interest rates are down a lot since the Fed started to ease in 2024 and by some measures are going lower."
Meanwhile, The New York Times was reporting signs of escalation in the conflict. "Residents reported blackouts across large parts of Tehran after heavy airstrikes struck multiple areas of Iran’s capital early Monday. It came shortly after Israel announced it would target Tehran’s infrastructure,
without providing more details."
The Israeli attacks followed successful Iranian missile strikes on two cities in Israel over the weekend, close to the country's main nuclear research facility. "So when two Iranian ballistic missiles crashed into residential neighborhoods of Dimona and another nearby city, Arad, on Saturday night, evading the country’s vaunted air defenses, even battle-hardened Israelis seemed rattled by the scenes of destruction," said The Times.
All this might see markets in a dark mood this morning, with pressure on oil prices, stocks and mortgage rates. But sentiment could turn on a dime if the U.S. government offers reassurances that the war will end quickly and the Strait of Hormuz will open soon.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And it rarely affects mortgage rates.
It covers construction spending in January, and markets expect that to slow to 0.1% growth from December's 0.3%.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse
than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Today's report is typically unimportant for mortgage rates, and we'll be surprised if it has any perceptible impact on those rates.
