The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.42% today, an increase of 0.11% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.63%, up by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.76%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.82%, reflecting an increase of 0.12%.
The bigger picture
Oof! Yesterday was a bad day for mortgage rates. But, given the triple whammy that hit those rates, they kinda dodged a bullet.
The day began badly, with the producer price index (PPI) coming in much worse than expected. Producer prices rose 0.7% in February, when markets had been expecting a 0.3% increase. And "core" PPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose 3.5% year over year, way higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target rate for inflation.
Actually, the Fed may have saved the day for mortgage rates. Its dot plot showed the same number of future cuts to general interest rates as previously expected, which caused markets to exhale a huge sigh of relief.
The only shadow came later. " ... at a news conference after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said little to suggest cuts were around the corner and instead emphasized how little room officials might have to ease," reported The Wall Street Journal.
The Fed might have more or less balanced out the dire PPI. However, oil prices rose during the day, taking mortgage rates with them.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.42% | 6.44% | +0.11% | +0.42% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | +0.12% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.76% | 6.97% | +0.09% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.01% | +0.08% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.8% | 5.95% | -0.04% | +0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.82% | 6.83% | +0.12% | +0.35% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.08% | -0.05% | +0.26% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.45% | 6.48% | +0.11% | +0.39% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.59% | 5.63% | +0.12% | +0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.73% | 6.94% | +0.08% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.88% | 6.03% | +0.05% | +0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | +0.05% | +0.26% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular e-newsletter, laying out its predictions for the week:
"The Fed will hold rates steady at Wednesday’s meeting and signal vigilance toward inflation rising due to the Iran war. Ordinarily, central bankers try to look through the impact of an inflationary shock to energy prices and other events disconnected from the business cycle, since inflation usually returns to trend once shocks subside. But this shock follows half a decade of inflation overshooting the Fed’s target, so they will be attuned to the risk that consumers’ and businesses’ inflation expectations follow prices at the pump higher. The March dot plot will likely raise the forecast for inflation and signal that the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee expects to hold rates steady through the end of 2026.
"Industrial production likely grew slower in February after January’s cold weather boosted utilities output. Manufacturing growth was likely moderate and capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady. Producer Price Index inflation likely held steady in February. It will rise in March on the surge in prices of diesel, gasoline, and other petroleum products after the outbreak of the war."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on the consensus forecasts of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But we'll be surprised if any of them move mortgage rates far — or at all.
The four are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 14 — Markets expect 215,000 new claims, up a little from the previous week's 213,000
- March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — Markets expect an index reading of 8.4, well down from February's 16.3
- January wholesale inventories — Markets expect a 0.2% increase, the same as December's
- January new home sales — Markets expect 719,000 sales (annualized), down from December's 745,000
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates. Today's reports are rarely important.
No reports are due tomorrow.
