The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.25% yesterday, a decrease of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.46%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Monday and Tuesday were good for mortgage rates. Will that happy situation continue today?
Federal Reserve events scheduled for early this afternoon may help decide that. However, markets are obsessed with the war in Iran, and may pay less attention to the Fed if important news arises on that front.
Almost nobody expects the Fed to cut general interest rates today. Indeed, the 1.1% who do think a change is likely expect a hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which is determined by trades in interest rate futures.
If the Fed does move mortgage rates, it's likely to be a result of markets' reaction to the Fed's famous "dot plot," which shows how the Fed officials who set general interest rates expect those rates to move in the coming months and years.
Scroll on down for information about the Fed meeting and dot plot, along with today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.28% | -0.06% | +0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.52% | -0.05% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | -0.02% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.92% | -0.04% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.71% | 5.86% | -0.13% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.75% | -0.02% | +0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.04% | -0.08% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.34% | -0.05% | +0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.44% | 5.48% | -0.04% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.85% | -0.03% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.95% | -0.03% | +0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.04% | -0.05% | +0.13% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Fed meeting
Every six weeks or so, the Fed meets to decide whether general interest rates should change. The body that makes those decisions is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and its next meeting is scheduled to conclude this morning.
Its job is to maintain prosperity (mostly measured through the labor market) while keeping inflation in check. That's not always an easy line to tread.
On March 6, markets were shocked by the weakness of the jobs report, which showed the economy shedding 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate inching higher.
Meanwhile, last Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, revealed that underlying ("core") inflation was running at 3.1% year over year in January. The FOMC's target inflation rate is an annual 2%.
The Fed is typically more spooked by inflation than employment, and markets are expecting it to hold general interest rates steady at its meeting tomorrow. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool last night put the odds of a no-change announcement at 98.9%. The remaining 1.1% expect a rate hike.
So, it's highly probable that the Fed will hold general interest rates steady today.
Dot plot
At alternate FOMC meetings, the members release a summary of economic projections, which includes the famous dot plot. Today's is due at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Encyclopedia Britannica says, "The Fed dot plot is a chart that shows you where each FOMC member thinks interest rates will be by the end of the current year, two or three (depending on the time of year) consecutive years after, and the more ambiguous 'longer run.' Each 'dot' represents a member’s individual view."
Markets typically take dot plots extremely seriously. And they may take special notice this time because it will show how the Fed views the likely impact of the Iran war on U.S. inflation and the economy.
If the dot plot shows FOMC members anticipating more cuts to general interest rates this year and next than markets are hoping for, that could exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. However, if fewer-than-expected cuts are on the dot plot, that could be bad for mortgage rates.
Personally, we share Comerica Bank's pessimism (below) about today's dots.
The FOMC directly affects most variable-rate borrowing. However, it only indirectly influences costs on new fixed-rate mortgages.
Fed chair's news conference
At 2:30 p.m. Eastern, 30 minutes after the rate announcement and dot plot release, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference. Powell is scheduled to retire from the chair in May, so some investors may see him as a lame duck.
However, others will probably listen to him very carefully as a widely respected economic commentator who is delivering the FOMC's new insights.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular e-newsletter, laying out its predictions for the week:
"The Fed will hold rates steady at Wednesday’s meeting and signal vigilance toward inflation rising due to the Iran war. Ordinarily, central bankers try to look through the impact of an inflationary shock to energy prices and other events disconnected from the business cycle, since inflation usually returns to trend once shocks subside. But this shock follows half a decade of inflation overshooting the Fed’s target, so they will be attuned to the risk that consumers’ and businesses’ inflation expectations follow prices at the pump higher. The March dot plot will likely raise the forecast for inflation and signal that the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee expects to hold rates steady through the end of 2026.
"Industrial production likely grew slower in February after January’s cold weather boosted utilities output. Manufacturing growth was likely moderate and capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady. Producer Price Index inflation likely held steady in February. It will rise in March on the surge in prices of diesel, gasoline, and other petroleum products after the outbreak of the war."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on the consensus forecasts of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
Besides the Fed events, there are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
The more important is the producer price index (PPI) for February, which is the hugely influential consumer price index's (CPI's) little brother. In other words, it can influence mortgage rates, but much less so than the CPI. It measures price changes at factory gates and through the wholesale phase of the supply chain.
Markets expect the PPI to have risen 0.3% in February, better than January's 0.5%. "Core" PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to have risen by 0.3% that month, too, unchanged since January. Year-over-year figures are also due this morning, but market expectations for those are not published.
With all inflation figures, lower-than-expected numbers typically exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones are bad news.
Today's other report reveals factory orders in January, and rarely affects mortgage rates perceptibly. Markets expect these to have risen by 0.2% that month, way better than December's -0.7%.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Tomorrow's reports tend not to be influential, and none is due on Friday. So, for the rest of this week (after today), mortgage rates are most likely to move on war news and especially oil prices.
