The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, an increase of 0.08% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.53%, up by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.67% yesterday, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.78%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates yesterday rose appreciably for a second consecutive day. That took them to their highest level so far this year. But they remain low compared to much of last year.
MarketWatch summed up the cause of yesterday's increase in a headline that afternoon: "Global oil prices settle above $100 for first time since 2022, as Iran ramps up strikes and vows to keep blocking Strait of Hormuz."
This morning's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation. So, markets often take it seriously.
However, the report's impact this morning may be muted if markets are still fixated on the war in Iran. We'll have to wait to see what happens.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0.08% | +0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.53% | 5.58% | +0.12% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.88% | +0.08% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0.08% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.9% | 6.05% | +0.23% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.78% | 6.8% | +0.05% | +0.27% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.06% | -0.05% | +0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.39% | 6.42% | +0.04% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.49% | 5.53% | +0.1% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | +0.08% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.95% | +0.08% | +0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.04% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave its preview of this week's key economic reports:
"The February CPI report will likely run cool as tame housing costs offset the effects of tariffs. Grocery price inflation was likely tame during the month. The January PCE inflation report likely ran hotter, since medical services make up a larger share of the PCE price basket, and those prices tend to jump at the start of the year. The federal deficit likely widened sharply in February as the 2025 tax cuts reduce income tax receipts.
"These inflation reports cover the period before the war with Iran, so they do not reflect its effects. But the preliminary March release of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey will: Sentiment likely retreated from February as the headlines and rising gas prices pushed inflation expectations higher."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of forecasts from a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, if any affect mortgage rates, it's likely to be the PCE price index.
That index comprises four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (January), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, spanning the period from Feb. 1, 2025, to Jan. 31, 2026.
One for each period is the straight PCE index, measuring how all prices in the survey moved. The other for each period is the "core PCE index," which tracks the same prices, excluding those for food and energy. By stripping out those two categories, which tend to be especially volatile, economists can see underlying inflation trends.
Here are what markets are expecting this morning from those four headline numbers:
- January PCE index — Markets expect a 0.3% rise in prices that month, down from January's 0.4%
- YOY PCE index — Markets expect a 2.9% rise in prices over the previous 12 months, unchanged since December
- February core PCE index — Markets expect a 0.4% rise in prices that month, unchanged since December
- YOY core PCE index — Markets expect a 3.1% rise in prices over the previous 12 months, up from December's 3.0%
Absent other influences, mortgage rates almost always rise when inflation figures are higher than expected and fall on lower-than-expected numbers.
Here are what markets are expecting from today's other reports:
- Second reading of GDP in the 4th quarter of 2025 — Markets expect 1.5% growth, up from the previous estimate's 1.4%
- January durable goods orders — Markets expect orders to have risen by 1.3%, having fallen by -1.4% in December
- January job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Markets expect 6.7 million job openings, up from January's 6.5 million
- Preliminary consumer sentiment index for March— Markets expect a reading of 55.3, down from February's 56.6
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Apart from the PCE price index, today's reports would likely need to deliver a surprisingly wide gap between expectations and actual numbers to move mortgage rates far.
