Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 12, 2025: How Will Today's Inflation Report Affect Mortgage Rates?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.68% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.7%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.03%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
The Barron's Daily e-newsletter noted yesterday that, on Monday, the Nasdaq Composite index had its worst day since 2022. That and falls in other stock indices caused mortgage rates to drop moderately.
Yesterday, the opposite happened. Investors woke in a better mood and stocks started out having a better day, sending mortgage rates higher.
The good news is that those rates might start today lower. Because, later yesterday, stock prices tumbled again on another tariff announcement. Stock indices move all the time, but mortgage rates tend to move only once or twice a day. So, it's not unusual for those rates to have some catching up to do each morning.
We don't mean to imply that mortgage rates and stock prices move in lockstep. Their relationship is much looser than that and sometimes non-existent. But, recently, it's been easy to see how that relationship can work.
Today's consumer price index
Normally, consumer price indexes (CPIs) can have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Investors have typically traded ahead of each report based on market expectations, which are also called analysts' consensus forecasts. These are published by people like MarketWatch and The Wall Street Journal, and it's the gap between those forecasts and a report's actual figures that generate volatility. The wider the gap, the bigger the movement.
The question now is whether today's CPI will be as influential as previous ones. Certainly markets are highly sensitive to inflation data. But, with so much attention being paid to tariffs and talk of a possible recession, might this morning's report be slightly overshadowed? We'll find out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Read on for market expectations for today's CPI.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | +0.05% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.76% | +0.08% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 6.81% | +0.08% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.09% | 6.23% | +0.08% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.08% | 6.22% | +0% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.03% | 7.06% | +0.02% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.77% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0.04% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.75% | +0.08% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 6.81% | +0.08% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.13% | 6.28% | +0.08% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.95% | +0.13% | +0.11% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen as recently as yesterday.
Here is Comerica Bank's economic team's outlook for this week:
"Inflation data will dominate the economic calendar this week. The total and core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) likely rose at a more moderate pace in February after sharp increases in the prior month, resulting in annual increases holding roughly steady. Pushed higher by tariffs and tariff threats, producer prices probably rose faster than consumer prices for a second month running, keeping annual PPI elevated. The federal government’s budget balance likely turned positive last month for the first time in the current fiscal year. The New York Fed’s consumer survey is expected to show rising inflation expectations [it did], as is the University of Michigan’s, where the overall economic outlook likely dimmed in early March."
The House this evening passed a bill to avert a government shutdown starting at midnight on Friday. The legislation now moves to the Senate, where a fight is expected.
Mortgage rates today
Price indices, including today's CPI, contain four main components. Two cover the reporting month (February) and two show the year-over-year (YOY) figures (Mar. 1, 2024-Feb 28, 2025). The first for each period measures price changes for all items in the survey. And the second shows "core" inflation: the same changes, excluding those for food and energy.
Here are the analysts' consensus forecasts, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar, for this morning's CPI:
- Feb. CPI — Markets are expecting a 0.3% rise, smaller than January's 0.5%
- YOY CPI — Markets are expecting a 2.9% rise, smaller than January's 3.0%
- Feb core CPI — Markets are expecting a 0.3% rise, smaller than January's 0.4%
- YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting a 3.2% rise, smaller than January's 3.3%
For lower mortgage rates, we'd like to see as many as possible of today's figures coming in lower than markets are expecting. Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while on-forecast ones often leave them untouched.
February's federal budget comes out later this afternoon. But it's rare for it to affect mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings the CPI's little sibling, the producer price index (PPI). Again, we'll bring you market expectations when we brief you tomorrow morning, ahead of the PPI's publication.
PPIs tend to be much less consequential for mortgage rates than CPIs. But much depends on the figures they contain and the receptiveness of markets.
