The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.17% yesterday, a decrease of 0.07% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.36%, down by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.57% yesterday, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.71%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell yesterday in line with global oil prices. Markets believe there's a good chance the war in Iran will end soon, which will allow oil prices to stabilize.
That's good for now. But if the war ends up dragging on, there could be bad times ahead. And, according to Barron's, "oil prices [and thus mortgage rates] are susceptible to wild swings" while the conflict continues.
This morning's consumer price index (CPI) is the most important of all inflation reports, and might easily affect mortgage rates. Unfortunately, we won't know in which direction it will push them until we see the data.Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.17% | 6.2% | -0.07% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.41% | -0.08% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.8% | -0.07% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.64% | 5.78% | -0.05% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.71% | 6.73% | -0.02% | +0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | +0.02% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.28% | -0.1% | +0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.36% | -0.09% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.54% | 6.75% | -0.05% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.68% | 5.82% | -0.07% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.01% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave its preview of this week's key economic reports:
"The February CPI report will likely run cool as tame housing costs offset the effects of tariffs. Grocery price inflation was likely tame during the month. The January PCE inflation report likely ran hotter, since medical services make up a larger share of the PCE price basket, and those prices tend to jump at the start of the year. The federal deficit likely widened sharply in February as the 2025 tax cuts reduce income tax receipts.
"These inflation reports cover the period before the war with Iran, so they do not reflect its effects. But the preliminary March release of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey will: Sentiment likely retreated from February as the headlines and rising gas prices pushed inflation expectations higher."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of forecasts from a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, only the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to affect mortgage rates much.
The CPI comprises four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (February), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, spanning the period from Mar. 1, 2025, to Feb. 28, 2026.
One for each period is the straight CPI, measuring how all prices in the survey moved. The other for each period is "core CPI," which tracks the same prices, excluding those for food and energy. By stripping out those two categories, which tend to be especially volatile, economists can see underlying inflation trends.
Here are what markets are expecting this morning from those four headline numbers:
- February CPI — Markets expect a 0.3% rise in prices that month, up from January's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect a 2.4% rise in prices over the previous 12 months, unchanged since January
- February core CPI — Markets expect a 0.2% rise in prices that month, down from January's 0.3%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect a 2.5% rise in prices over the previous 12 months, unchanged since January
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates. With inflation data, lower-than-expected numbers are better for mortgage rates.
Today's other report is the U.S. federal budget for February. However, this rarely has a perceptible impact on mortgage rates. The same applies to all tomorrow's economic reports.
We're still due Friday's inflation report, which is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In many ways, this is superior to the CPI, but markets tend to pay closer attention to the latter. Still, PCE price indices certainly have the potential to move mortgage rates.
