The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.25% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.44%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.62% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.73%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates and markets were on a rollercoaster yesterday. Those rates started the day climbing, but fell back later, closing immediately adjacent to their level when markets opened that morning.
The earlier rise was likely due to soaring oil prices. "Some investors had started to fear stagflation, a scenario in which inflation and the risk of recession rise simultaneously," said MarketWatch.
The oil price and mortgage rates later fell on news that President Donald J. Trump had said that the war in Iran was “pretty much” done.
However, the president later walked back his remark. "After a day of conflicting signals about when the war against Iran might end, President Trump struck a belligerent tone Monday evening, warning of even more aggressive action if Iranian leaders tried to cut off the world’s energy supply," said The New York Times.
We'll have to wait to see how markets react to that change in tone when they reopen this morning.Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.28% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.44% | 5.5% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | -0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.87% | +-0% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.69% | 5.84% | +0% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.75% | +0.02% | +0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.07% | +0.03% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.38% | +0.01% | +0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | +-0% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | +-0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | +0.1% | +0.01% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
In an e-newsletter yesterday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave its preview of this week's key economic reports:
"The February CPI report will likely run cool as tame housing costs offset the effects of tariffs. Grocery price inflation was likely tame during the month. The January PCE inflation report likely ran hotter, since medical services make up a larger share of the PCE price basket, and those prices tend to jump at the start of the year. The federal deficit likely widened sharply in February as the 2025 tax cuts reduce income tax receipts.
"These inflation reports cover the period before the war with Iran, so they do not reflect its effects. But the preliminary March release of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey will: Sentiment likely retreated from February as the headlines and rising gas prices pushed inflation expectations higher."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of forecasts from a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, they rarely affect mortgage rates.
Those reports are the:
- February small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business — Markets expect a 99.6 optimism index, better than January's 99.3
- February existing home sales — Markets expect 3.85 million (annualized) home sales, fewer than January's 3.91 million
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Given that today's reports are unlikely to influence those rates, any movement today is likely to be driven by other factors, especially news on the war (see above).
Stand by for tomorrow and Friday's inflation reports. They might well still have a considerable impact on mortgage rates. However, there's a chance that investors will see them as ancient history, given how quickly the war is affecting the current inflationary outlook.
