The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.25% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.46%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.64%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.7%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates climbed back higher yesterday. Still, Freddie Mac's latest weekly rates report, out on Thursdays, reckons they barely moved over the previous seven days. The average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages inched up to 6% from 5.98% a week earlier, says Freddie.
Today brings two of arguably the three most consequential monthly economic reports for mortgage rates. Depending on the data they contain, they might either repair some of the damage done by the current war or make things worse.
Scroll on down for analysis on the war and information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.29% | +0.08% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | +0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | +0.04% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.04% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.69% | 5.84% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.7% | 6.72% | +0.01% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.03% | +0.04% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.37% | +0.09% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | +0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.81% | +0.04% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.92% | 5.94% | +-0% | -0.11% |
The war
"The U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran have halted a weekslong rally in U.S. government bonds, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note back above 4% and threatening higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers," said The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
That's crucial for us because mortgage rates, which are determined by a type of bond, often shadow yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which are another type of bond.
"The fight has sparked turbulence in stocks, a development that might normally cause investors to seek safety in bonds," continued the Journal. "But it has also fueled a jump in energy prices. And for now, that has been more important for investors, raising fears of a resurgence in inflation that drags on debt prices."
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are Comerica economists' expectations for major economic reports this week.
"The U.S. likely registered another month of job growth outpacing last year’s meager rate in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady. Annual benchmark revisions to the household survey will likely draw headlines; this is the survey from which the unemployment rate is derived. This monthly survey covers about 60,000 households, just a sliver of the country’s 275 million people over age 16. Once a year, the BLS incorporates detailed population data from the Census Bureau to re-weight responses to the survey according to demographic characteristics like sex, age, race, national origin, and so forth. These 'population control' revisions include data on immigration and so will almost certainly revise down the levels of the labor force, employment, and unemployment. Post-revision, the household survey may well show that employment fell over the last 12 months. From the Fed’s perspective, the most important output of these revisions is whether they meaningfully adjust the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate is largely unchanged, the Fed is still very likely to hold rates steady at their next decision on March 18.
"This week will also see the release of January’s retail sales data, which are likely to come in weak due to headwinds from the severe winter weather that swept the country during the month."
Comerica Bank's predictions are often different from market expectations, which are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are yet again three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, most investors care about business inventories in December roughly as much as you and we do.
Today's star report is undoubtedly the jobs report (aka the employment situation report) for February.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates. With that in mind, here are market expectations for this morning's jobs report, which has four headline figures:
- February nonfarm payrolls (the number of new jobs created that month) — Markets expect 50,000 new jobs, many fewer than January's 130,000
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect a 4.3% unemployment rate, a slight improvement on January's 4.4%
- February average hourly wages — Markets expect wages to have risen by 0.3% that month, more slowly than January's 0.4%
- Year-over-year average hourly wages — Markets expect wages to have risen by 3.7% over the previous 12 months, unchanged from January
Our best chance of seeing mortgage rates today fall in response to the jobs report is for fewer than 50,000 new jobs to have been created, the unemployment rate to be higher than 4.3%, and wages to have risen more slowly than 0.3% (and 3.7% year over .
Today's other important report comprises retail sales figures in January, delayed by last year's government shutdown. Markets expect those to have contracted by -0.4%, having held steady at 0.0% in December. An even larger contraction might help mortgage rates.
Today's key reports often move mortgage rates, sometimes significantly. However, with so much uncertainty over the economic implications of the war, it's just possible that something startling — for example, a sudden spike in oil prices — might overshadow them.
