The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.13% yesterday, a decrease of 0.05% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.34%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.55% yesterday, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell yesterday for the first time this week. Unfortunately, it was a moderate drop, and there was no clear sign of what caused it, beyond a pause in the rise of global oil prices.
The fall might have been a result of the uncertainty markets face from the war in Iran and the wider Middle East. We saw rises on Monday and Tuesday, and, in the absence of reliable information, Wall Street might have shrugged and decided that a spot of optimism was overdue.
Scroll on down for analysis on the war and information about today's economic reports, including their possible impacts on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.13% | 6.16% | -0.05% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.39% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.76% | -0.06% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.82% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.63% | 5.78% | -0.07% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | -0.01% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.94% | 5.97% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.23% | -0.1% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.37% | -0.04% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.73% | -0.06% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.83% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.9% | 5.93% | -0.05% | -0.12% |
The war
Right now, it's worth keeping an eye on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane off Iran's coast. "The strait is deep enough and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, and it is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints," said the U.S. Energy Information Administration last year.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal wrote: "President Trump’s promise to protect the Strait of Hormuz with naval escorts and provide government-backed marine insurance underscores the urgent need to restore flows of energy from the Middle East before soaring prices rip through the world economy.
"As of Wednesday, day five of the war on Iran, several thousand ships were stuck inside and outside the Persian Gulf, trapping roughly a fifth of the oil and liquefied natural gas the world consumes each day. The blockage is cascading through the region’s industry as storage tanks fill up with oil that can’t set sail, forcing producers to slash output."
Reduced oil production and supply bottlenecks would likely fuel inflation. And mortgage rates pretty much always rise when inflation does
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are Comerica economists' expectations for major economic reports this week.
"The U.S. likely registered another month of job growth outpacing last year’s meager rate in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady. Annual benchmark revisions to the household survey will likely draw headlines; this is the survey from which the unemployment rate is derived. This monthly survey covers about 60,000 households, just a sliver of the country’s 275 million people over age 16. Once a year, the BLS incorporates detailed population data from the Census Bureau to re-weight responses to the survey according to demographic characteristics like sex, age, race, national origin, and so forth. These 'population control' revisions include data on immigration and so will almost certainly revise down the levels of the labor force, employment, and unemployment. Post-revision, the household survey may well show that employment fell over the last 12 months. From the Fed’s perspective, the most important output of these revisions is whether they meaningfully adjust the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate is largely unchanged, the Fed is still very likely to hold rates steady at their next decision on March 18.
"This week will also see the release of January’s retail sales data, which are likely to come in weak due to headwinds from the severe winter weather that swept the country during the month."
Comerica Bank's predictions are often different from market expectations, which are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are again three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But none of them typically moves mortgage rates far.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates. With that in mind, here are market expectations for this morning's reports:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 28 — Markets expect 215,000 new claims, slightly more than the previous week's 212,000
- Fourth-quarter 2025 productivity — Markets expect a 1.8% increase, considerably lower than the 4.9% seen in the third quarter
- January import price index — Markets expect import prices to have risen by 0.3% that month, faster than December's 0.1%
Stand by for tomorrow's jobs report, which is often the single biggest influence on mortgage rates in any given month. The retail sales report for January is also due tomorrow, and that can be another big hitter.
