The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.18% yesterday, an increase of 0.11% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.39%, up by 0.1%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.61% yesterday, having risen by 0.15. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.68%, reflecting an increase of 0.16%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates rose again yesterday. However, the size of the increase is disputed. ICanBuy saw a rise of 12 basis points for a 30-year fixed-rate loan to 6.18% yesterday from 6.06% on Monday. However, Mortgage News Daily (MND) reported only a 1-basis-point increase to 6.13% from 6.12% for the same type of loan.
These numbers are disappointing, given that the same rate was below 6% before the weekend. Still, as MND stresses, "Even after that 'sharp' increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week."
"Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ is rising as Iran conflict escalates," read a MarketWatch headline yesterday. And Barron's said, "The Dow fell 404 points, or 0.8%. The index has fallen about 1,000 points since its close on Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1%."
The war's impact on markets and the economy will greatly depend on how long it lasts. If it carries on for only a matter of days, as some initially suggested is possible, the effect might be brief and minimal. However, if we enter a boots-on-the-ground scenario that looks likely to last for months or even years, we could see more profound and enduring consequences.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.18% | 6.21% | +0.11% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.43% | +0.1% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +0.15% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0.1% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.85% | +0.08% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.7% | +0.16% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.97% | 6% | +0.17% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.3% | 6.33% | +0.18% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | +0.09% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | +0.15% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.95% | 5.98% | +0.08% | -0.11% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are Comerica economists' expectations for major economic reports this week.
"The U.S. likely registered another month of job growth outpacing last year’s meager rate in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady. Annual benchmark revisions to the household survey will likely draw headlines; this is the survey from which the unemployment rate is derived. This monthly survey covers about 60,000 households, just a sliver of the country’s 275 million people over age 16. Once a year, the BLS incorporates detailed population data from the Census Bureau to re-weight responses to the survey according to demographic characteristics like sex, age, race, national origin, and so forth. These 'population control' revisions include data on immigration and so will almost certainly revise down the levels of the labor force, employment, and unemployment. Post-revision, the household survey may well show that employment fell over the last 12 months. From the Fed’s perspective, the most important output of these revisions is whether they meaningfully adjust the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate is largely unchanged, the Fed is still very likely to hold rates steady at their next decision on March 18.
"This week will also see the release of January’s retail sales data, which are likely to come in weak due to headwinds from the severe winter weather that swept the country during the month."
Comerica Bank's predictions are often different from market expectations, which are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Two are likely to influence mortgage rates more than the third.
The ADP employment report is sometimes seen as a bellwether for Friday's all-important official jobs report. And the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is a closely watched indicator of future economic activity.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. With that in mind, here are market expectations for this morning's reports:
- February ADP employment report — Markets expect 48,000 new jobs to have been created that month, an improvement on January's 22,000
- February ISM services PMI — Markets expect a reading of 53.5%, a little lower than the 53.8% seen previously
- February S&P Global services PMI — Markets expect an index reading of 52.3, unchanged from previously
This afternoon, we're due the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. "Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources," says the Fed.
Stand by for Friday's jobs report, which is often the single biggest influence on mortgage rates in any given month. The retail sales report for January is also due on Friday (although it's not on the MarketWatch calendar yet), and that can be another big hitter.
