The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.07% yesterday, an increase of 0.09% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.29%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.47% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.52%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates shot back above 6% yesterday, according to both ICanBuy (6.06%) and Mortgage News Daily (6.12%) for a 30-year fixed-rate loan. It was only very recently that such low rates were a dream for many home buyers.
Mortgage News Daily argues that it would be a mistake to blame the Iran conflict for yesterday's movement in mortgage rates. But we struggle to identify another credible cause.
"Concerns that a sustained spike in oil prices would boost inflation appeared to outweigh the perceived role of Treasurys as a haven asset," said The Wall Street Journal, explaining why Treasury yields rose. And mortgage rates often shadow the yield on 10-year Treasury notes.
The war triggered mayhem in global stock markets, but appears to have had a more muted impact on Wall Street. It seems that investors here are willing to wager that the conflict will be brief and decisive. That could change if it later looks likely to drag on.
In any event, oil futures, which are determined globally, rose sharply yesterday, closing at $78.07 a barrel for Brent Crude, up more than 7% on the day. How much effect that will have on pump prices and inflation generally will depend on the conflict's duration.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.07% | 6.1% | +0.09% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.29% | 5.34% | +0.08% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.47% | 6.69% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | +0.05% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.64% | 5.78% | +0.16% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.52% | 6.54% | -0.01% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.81% | 5.84% | -0.04% | -0.26% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.12% | 6.15% | +0.05% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.28% | 5.32% | +0.09% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.45% | 6.66% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.08% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.89% | 5.91% | +0.08% | -0.17% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are Comerica economists' expectations for major economic reports this week.
"The U.S. likely registered another month of job growth outpacing last year’s meager rate in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady. Annual benchmark revisions to the household survey will likely draw headlines; this is the survey from which the unemployment rate is derived. This monthly survey covers about 60,000 households, just a sliver of the country’s 275 million people over age 16. Once a year, the BLS incorporates detailed population data from the Census Bureau to re-weight responses to the survey according to demographic characteristics like sex, age, race, national origin, and so forth. These 'population control' revisions include data on immigration and so will almost certainly revise down the levels of the labor force, employment, and unemployment. Post-revision, the household survey may well show that employment fell over the last 12 months. From the Fed’s perspective, the most important output of these revisions is whether they meaningfully adjust the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate is largely unchanged, the Fed is still very likely to hold rates steady at their next decision on March 18.
"This week will also see the release of January’s retail sales data, which are likely to come in weak due to headwinds from the severe winter weather that swept the country during the month."
Comerica Bank's predictions are often different from market expectations, which are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
A few relatively minor reports are due tomorrow. However, strap in for Friday's jobs report, which is often the single biggest influence on mortgage rates in any given month.
The retail sales report for January is also due on Friday (although it's not on the MarketWatch calendar yet), and that can be another big hitter.
