The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.98% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.22%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.48% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.53%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
We begin this week with mortgage rates back below 6%, according to both ICanBuy (5.97%) and Mortgage News Daily (5.99%) for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.
It's hard to gauge how markets will respond to any new war, including the one currently being waged in Iran by the United States and Israel. But "Iran is a major [oil] producer and lies opposite the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global
oil supply passes," says Reuters. "Conflict could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices."
Indeed, referring to foreign markets and U.S. futures, a headline in The Guardian overnight reads, "Stock markets drop as analysts warn oil price could top $100 a barrel." That might be good for mortgage rates today.
However, mortgage rates are largely determined by yields in a particular bond market, the one in which mortgage-backed securities are traded. And bond yields are always sensitive to the prospect of higher inflation, something that's nearly inevitable if oil prices do spike. So, immediate gains, if there are any today, might be short-lived.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.01% | +0% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.22% | 5.27% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.57% | 5.71% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.48% | 5.63% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.53% | 6.55% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.84% | 5.88% | +0% | -0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.07% | 6.09% | +0% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.19% | 5.23% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.57% | 5.71% | +0% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.82% | 5.84% | +0% | -0.24% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, only one typically has the potential to move mortgage rates.
That's the final February purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Markets expect that to nudge lower, to 52.0% from 52.6% previously.
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected.
Today's two other reports are:
- February manufacturing PMI from S&P Global — No market expectations; previously an index reading of 51.2
- February auto sales — No market expectations; previously 14.8 million units, annualized
No economic reports are due tomorrow. However, strap in for Friday's jobs report, which is often the single biggest influence on mortgage rates in any given month.
