The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.6% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.57%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.01%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.9%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Today's inflation report may take on greater significance than normal as a result of a controversy centered around the Federal Reserve. A story in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal rekindled chatter that the government will name a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the next three months, even though Powell isn't due to leave his post before next May.
Typically, Fed chair replacements are named only two or three months before the end of a term. And observers are worried that the nominee will become the "shadow Fed chair," undermining Powell and acting as a political appointment.
Investors value the Fed's independence, and many would view such a move with horror. Both MarketWatch and Barron's blame the dollar's recent plunge to its current three-year low on a fear of political interference in the Fed.
What does all this have to do with today's inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for May (details below)? Well, a lot, actually.
Inflation and the Fed
The only reason the Fed hasn't already cut general interest rates is that it fears a spike in inflation, largely as a result of new tariffs. If today's report shows early signs of inflation warming up, that would justify its caution over rate cuts.
However, if the index shows inflation cooling, that might increase the political pressure on it to begin cutting general interest rates at the next meeting of its rate-setting committee on July 30. Of course, it might still resist that pressure because any warming of inflation from tariffs could take many months to feed through into the data.
But a couple of the committee's members have already signaled their willingness to entertain a rate cut that day. And today's report might either close down that discussion or heighten the chances of a cut happening.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0.01% | -0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | -0.03% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 7.21% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.11% | 6.25% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0.27% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.9% | 6.92% | -0.02% | -0.64% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.57% | 6.61% | +0.01% | -0.32% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.67% | 6.7% | -0.01% | -0.31% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | -0.03% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.99% | 7.19% | -0.01% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.14% | 6.28% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.68% | +0.04% | -0.34% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for the main economic report scheduled for today:
"Household incomes likely rose solidly in May, while personal consumption expenditures probably pulled back. Total and core PCE inflation are expected to have edged up in May, leaving annual inflation little changed at a bit above the Fed’s target."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows two economic reports due. But the PCE price index is likely to dominate, not least because it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Like all price indices, the PCE is made up of four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month, which is May this time. And two others track year-on-year price changes: June 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025.
One for each period measures changes in all the prices in the survey. The other two cover the same prices, excluding energy and food ones. This is called the "core" PCE price index.
Here is what markets are expecting for each figure, according to MarketWatch:
- May PCE index — 0.1%, unchanged since April
- YOY PCE index — 2.3%, up from April's 2.1%
- May core PCE index — 0.1%, unchanged since April
- YOY core PCE index — 2.6%, up from April's 2.5%
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often exert downward pressure.
That applies to today's other report, too. That's the final June consumer sentiment index, which is expected to be unchanged at 60.5.
Next week
By far the most consequential economic report on next week's schedule is the June jobs report, due on Thursday. Indeed, that's often the most important report in any given month.You won't have forgotten that markets will be closed next Friday for the July 4 holiday.
