The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.6% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.6%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.02%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.93%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates' run of modest falls continued yesterday, notching up a sixth consecutive drop. Mortgage News Daily reckons the last time they were this low was on April 4.
Will that run survive today? It may well. Today's two main economic reports are the final reading of the first quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) and May's durable goods orders (details below). Markets are expecting both to do better than their previous readings, and they'll likely have to do even better to deliver a rise in mortgage rates.
Good and bad news
SIFMA stands for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which is a trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers. Its SmartBrief e-newsletter yesterday contained two snippets of news that were in some ways contradictory.
Good news
The good news was: "Bond traders have piled into $38 million worth of options, hedging a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to 4%, spurred by dovish Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical risks. Open interest in August call options surged following comments from Fed officials backing a potential July rate cut and weak consumer confidence data."
If the yield on 10-year Treasury notes does fall to 4% (from yesterday's close of 4.292%), that would likely be good for mortgage rates. Although the relationship isn't perfect, those rates tend to shadow those yields.
Bad news
Later in the same newsletter, SIFMA said, "Bond strategists warn that up to $1 trillion in new Treasury issuance could hit markets in the second half of 2025 following a resolution to the debt ceiling standoff."
Think back to Economics 101: Given constant demand, an increase in supply tends to push prices lower. Bond yields inevitably move inversely to bond prices, meaning yields (and mortgage rates) would rise.
The idea that the 10-year Treasury yield might fall to 4% is perfectly credible. But if the Treasury issues $1 trillion in new securities, there may be a problem later in the year keeping it that low.
"One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB)
The debt ceiling won't rise unless the OBBB tax and spending plans currently working their way through Congress are enacted. And the bill keeps hitting snags.
The latest, according to The Hill, is a House rebellion: "More than a dozen House Republicans warned they won’t support the Senate’s version of the tax and spending bill because the proposed Medicaid cuts are too steep."
This followed resistance from the opposite wing of the party, that of fiscal hawks. They believe that the bill could lead to spiraling deficits, something they abhor.
Given the tight electoral arithmetic in both the House and Senate, Republicans can ill afford rebellions from even a small number of legislators.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.62% | -0.06% | -0.31% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.65% | -0.05% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.02% | 7.22% | -0.01% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | -0.02% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.1% | +0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.93% | 6.94% | -0.03% | -0.63% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.56% | 6.6% | +-0% | -0.33% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | -0.06% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.65% | -0.05% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 7.2% | -0.01% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.27% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.62% | 6.64% | -0.01% | -0.38% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for economic reports scheduled for later this week:
"GDP growth in the first quarter will probably be revised down in the third estimate, incorporating revisions in last week’s retail sales report and a soft release of the Quarterly Services Survey. Household incomes likely rose solidly in May, while personal consumption expenditures probably pulled back. Total and core PCE inflation are expected to have edged up in May, leaving annual inflation little changed at a bit above the Fed’s target."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows three important economic reports due:
- Final reading of first quarter GDP — Expected to increase to +0.2% from May's reading of -0.2%
- May durable goods orders — Expected to jump to +6.5% from April's -6.3%
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 — 244,000, almost unchanged from the previous week's 245,000
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often exert downward pressure. However, the opposite typically applies for initial jobless claims.
Having said that, many important reports have in recent months been swamped by tariff and deficit headlines. So, today's numbers may have zero impact on mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow should bring the week's star report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation and deserves to be taken seriously.
We'll brief you first thing tomorrow morning on what to expect.
