The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.66% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.65%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.03%, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.95%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Small drops in mortgage rates are no more important than small rises. But we've now had five consecutive days of minimal falls, and they're starting to add up. Indeed, Mortgage News Daily reckons those rates closed yesterday at their lowest level since the end of April.
Today's latest fall might have been helped by yesterday's consumer confidence index. The Conference Board, which publishes the report, said the index " ... deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead."
Even relatively minor reports can affect mortgage rates if they are sufficiently over or under expectations. And the consumer confidence index fell far short of what markets were expecting.
The Fed
As expected, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained the Fed's wait-and-see line when he testified before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday. And it's highly likely he'll do the same when he appears before the Senate's equivalent committee later today.
The wait-and-see line says that the Fed won't hurry to cut general interest rates, and instead will hold off from making any move until the implications of future tariffs and deficits for the economy become apparent, reports The Hill. That was the consensus reached by the Fed's rate-setting committee last Wednesday. While Powell wouldn't rule out a July cut, his tone suggested one was unlikely.
However, since that meeting, two members of that committee have broken ranks, saying they're open to the idea of making a small, quarter-point cut at the next meeting on July 30. Those committee members are Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
So far, markets seem to be believing Powell. Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool was putting the chances of general rates remaining the same after the July meeting at 81.4%, with those for a cut at only 18.6%.
The Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates. But it certainly influences them.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the Supreme Court last month ruled that he cannot be fired before then, according to Reuters. Still, there is a possibility of his successor being named soon, something that might cause tensions within the committee.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.66% | 6.69% | -0.05% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.7% | -0.04% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.03% | 7.23% | -0.06% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.27% | -0.08% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.1% | -0.08% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.95% | 6.97% | -0.02% | -0.6% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.56% | 6.6% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | -0.02% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.7% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 7.21% | -0.06% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.14% | 6.29% | -0.09% | -0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.63% | 6.66% | -0.07% | -0.3% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for economic reports scheduled for later this week:
"GDP growth in the first quarter will probably be revised down in the third estimate, incorporating revisions in last week’s retail sales report and a soft release of the Quarterly Services Survey. Household incomes likely rose solidly in May, while personal consumption expenditures probably pulled back. Total and core PCE inflation are expected to have edged up in May, leaving annual inflation little changed at a bit above the Fed’s target."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows only one economic report due. That's new home sales in May, and markets are expecting them to tumble to 695,000 from 743,000 in April.
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often exert downward pressure.
