The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.78% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.78%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.01%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Why didn't the Federal Reserve move mortgage rates far on Wednesday afternoon? Because it said almost exactly what markets thought it would say.
Markets bet on outcomes ahead of actual events. So, when the event turns out to be as expected, there's no need for investors to adjust their portfolios to compensate for surprises. And markets and mortgage rates barely move.
In his news conference on Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity."
Perhaps using different words, Powell has said exactly the same thing ever since tariffs became a serious factor in the economic outlook. And vanishingly few Fed watchers thought there was any chance of his changing that line on Wednesday.
The U.S. in the Middle East
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.81% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.78% | 5.82% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 7.35% | +0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.25% | 6.4% | +0.02% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.38% | -0.01% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.01% | 7.03% | -0.04% | -0.47% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.87% | 6.91% | +0.06% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.88% | +-0% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.77% | 5.82% | +0.01% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 7.32% | +0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.29% | 6.44% | +0.02% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | +-0% | +0% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment, with events in the Middle East potentially rivaling them.
Mortgage rates today
Today brings June's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and May's leading economic indicators. It's rare for either of those to move mortgage rates perceptibly.
For the record, both are expected to improve from their terrible last readings. The forecast for the June manufacturing survey is -2.0%, better than May's -4.0%. And May's leading economic indicators are expected to come in at -0.1%, higher than April's -1.0%.
Higher-than-expected numbers often exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates, while lower-than-expected ones typically create downward pressure.
Next week
