The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.81% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.82%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.16%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.08%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
Apologies for the late publication of today's report. We've had technical issues with our website.
The bigger picture
Some commentators were surprised that U.S. Treasury yields (and therefore mortgage rates) rose rather than fell last Friday in response to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
MarketWatch talked to several bond market watchers who suggested several possible reasons:
- U.S. Treasurys are no longer a go-to safe haven when people want to protect their money from geopolitical shocks. Investors are worried about the impact of trade wars and proposed U.S. deficits on the underlying security of Treasurys.
- Higher oil prices would likely magnify the stagflation that some fear is on its way. Stagflation is a portmanteau word: “stag “for stagnant growth and “flation“ for inflation.
- Investors were in a wait-and-see mode. Previous military conflicts between the two nations have tended to de-escalate quickly. So far, that hasn’t been the case this time.
For this to make sense, you must remember that lower bond prices inevitably mean higher bond yields. The two move inversely. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) are both types of bonds, and MBSs, which often shadow 10-year Treasury notes, largely determine mortgage rates.
This week
This week looks set to be short and uneven. The shortness is down to the Juneteenth public holiday, which this year lands on Thursday. We won’t be publishing this column that day.
Meanwhile, the economic reports scheduled for today and Friday are unlikely to have a perceptible effect on mortgage rates.
So, all the action is set for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tomorrow should bring May’s retail sales figures, which are expected to deteriorate (read on for details).
And Wednesday afternoon’s calendar includes an avalanche of data, forecasts and commentary from the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to host a news conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern that afternoon.
As we’ve seen in recent months, a lack of economic reports doesn’t necessarily mean stagnant mortgage rates. Headlines about trade wars, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and Middle East conflicts are all capable of moving those rates, often further than any economic report is likely to do.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.84% | +0.06% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.87% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.16% | 7.36% | +0.03% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | +0.15% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.38% | +0.19% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.08% | 7.1% | +0.05% | -0.44% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.08% | -0.28% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.89% | 6.92% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.81% | 5.86% | +0.06% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 7.34% | +0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.39% | 6.54% | +0.15% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | +0.1% | -0.51% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting this week:
"The FOMC is forecast to hold the federal funds target unchanged at their decision on Wednesday. They will likely repeat that the federal funds target’s current setting at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% puts monetary policy “in a good place” to react to downside risks to the job market or upside risks to inflation should they materialize. The Fed is also likely to repeat that they think it is appropriate to exercise “patience” and “wait and see” how the mix of higher tariffs and tax cuts collectively impacts the economy. A repeat of the patience/wait and see language would signal that policymakers expect to hold the federal funds target steady again at the July decision.
"May’s economic activity indicators due out this week are likely to come in weak. Retail sales are expected to fall on a drop in new car and truck sales and lower gas prices. Core retail sales excluding these categories likely rose, though. Industrial production was likely lower in May, too, with tariff uncertainty weighing on manufacturing and lower oil and gas production a headwind to mining. Housing indicators were likely mixed in May. Building permits likely rose after a large drop in April, while housing starts were likely lower on the month."
Mortgage rates today
Today’s lone report is the June Empire State manufacturing survey. It’s hard to remember a time when it moved mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
However, retail sales are more than capable of moving those rates. The May data, due tomorrow, are expected to show those sales contracting by 0.6% following a tiny increase of 0.1% in April.
