The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.75% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.74%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.13%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.03%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
Israel strikes Iran
"Israel launched a stunning series of strikes on Friday morning against Iran’s nuclear program, killing three of the nation’s security chiefs," reported The New York Times overnight. "The wide-ranging attack prompted fears that long-simmering tensions between the heavily armed rivals were spiraling into a full-blown regional war."
Today's lead story in The Financial Times ran under the headline, "Oil surges after Israel's attack on Iran." It continued, "Traders fear renewed conflict could threaten [oil] supplies across the region. ... West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, climbed 5.2 per cent to $71.56."
A sustained spike in oil prices would likely be bad for mortgage rates because it would add upward pressure to inflation. It's unclear how this morning's news might affect other markets. Those have been slow to react to recent conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere. But, overnight, stock markets have been falling in Asia and Europe, and U.S. futures are also down.
The bigger picture
We started this week saying, "Rises followed by falls followed by rises followed by ... Mortgage rates are good at creating the illusion of movement while going nowhere fast." But this week, so far, has been a bit better than we expected, and has consistently delivered enough modest falls to add up to an appreciable one. (We'll see how that holds up today after Israel's raids on Iran.)
Still, Freddie Mac rained on that parade a bit yesterday when it reminded us that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages for the week that ended that day averaged 6.85%. Precisely one year earlier, that same average was 6.95%. And the average over the last 52 weeks has been 6.69%.
Experts are split over what comes next. But we're yet to read a forecast for later this year that begins with a 5. And even optimistic Fannie Mae is expecting a 5.9% annual average in 2026.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.75% | 6.78% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.74% | 5.79% | +-0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 7.33% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.34% | +0.01% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.04% | 6.18% | +-0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.03% | 7.05% | -0.01% | -0.51% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | +0.01% | -0.49% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.84% | -0.01% | -0.14% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.8% | +-0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 7.31% | +0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.24% | 6.39% | +0.01% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.84% | +0.01% | -0.74% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting later today:
"The University of Michigan and NY Fed’s surveys of consumers are expected to show consumer inflation expectations edged lower but are still elevated, after the U.S. and China agreed to substantially reduce tariffs for 90 days. The partial tariff reprieve, along with the stock market’s outperformance in May, likely lifted consumer and business sentiment."
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on the MarketWatch economic calendar today. It is the preliminary June reading of the consumer sentiment index. That's expected to improve, rising to 54.0 from 52.2 previously. But markets will be looking beyond that headline figure and examining the report's detail, especially concerning consumer expectations for inflation.
Next week
Next Monday, Thursday and Friday bring nothing likely to affect mortgage rates much. Indeed, Thursday is the Juneteenth public holiday.
However, May's retail sales figures are due next Tuesday. And the Federal Reserve will publish a whole bunch of market-sensitive forecasts on Wednesday.
Of course, markets and mortgage rates could still be buffeted by announcements on tariffs and news about likely future deficits on any trading day.
