The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.77% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.75%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.13%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.04%, reflecting a decrease of 0.11%.
The bigger picture
"Treasury yields drop by most in a week after milder-than-expected May CPI and solid [Treasury] auction," was a headline on Marketwatch soon after markets closed yesterday afternoon. As is so often the case, mortgage rates shadowed the yield on 10-year Treasury yields, and fell, too.
We have another inflation report and Treasury auction due today. So, should we expect a repeat? Maybe.
But today's inflation report is the producer price index (PPI), which measures price changes at factory gates and during the wholesale and distribution phases of the supply chain. And markets are expecting some appreciable rises in those prices (figures below) because any inflationary effects of tariffs will likely show up in the PPI before reaching the consumer price index (CPI).
A cooler-than-expected PPI could send mortgage rates lower. But a warmer-than-expected one could push them higher.
Meanwhile, today's Treasury auction offers $22 billion in 30-year bonds. That's a smaller amount than yesterday's and is for a less popular product. It's also one that has a more distant relationship with mortgage rates.
So, it's probably unwise to bank on today's action repeating yesterday's.
The Fed
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting body is due to meet on June 18, next Wednesday. It would be lovely to think it might cut general interest rates, which would very likely cause mortgage rates to drop, too.
Of course, nothing's impossible. But vanishingly few people expect such a cut that day.
The CME FedWatch tool measures expectations by looking at Fed Funds futures prices: effectively, wagers made by investors on what the Fed will do next. And it puts the chances of unchanged general rates next week at 97.6%. Indeed, most think there won't be a cut until the Sep. 17 meeting.
This is disappointing but understandable. The Fed wants to gauge the effects of tariffs and planned deficits on the economy and inflation before making its next move.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.8% | -0.04% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.79% | -0.07% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 7.32% | -0.02% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.18% | 6.33% | -0.08% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.04% | 6.19% | -0.08% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.04% | 7.05% | -0.11% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.7% | 6.74% | -0.23% | -0.45% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.86% | -0.06% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.8% | -0.06% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 7.3% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.37% | -0.06% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.79% | 6.83% | -0.2% | -0.7% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting later this week:
"Inflation data will drive the economic narrative this week. The CPI and PPI [producer price index] probably rose modestly in May due to lower energy prices, while core CPI and PPI likely accelerated as businesses began passing tariffs on to their customers. The University of Michigan and NY Fed’s surveys of consumers are expected to show consumer inflation expectations edged lower but are still elevated, after the U.S. and China agreed to substantially reduce tariffs for 90 days. The partial tariff reprieve, along with the stock market’s outperformance in May, likely lifted consumer and business sentiment. The federal government likely posted a hefty deficit in May, as some of June’s outlays, such as social security payments and salaries, were made in May, since the first of June fell on a weekend."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
There are two economic reports on the MarketWatch economic calendar today. But the PPI is typically much more powerful than the weekly new claims for unemployment benefits, which are expected to barely budge..
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
Today's PPI should contain four headline numbers. Two cover the reporting month (May). And the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, in this case, for Jun 1, 2024 - May 31, 2025.
One for each period is the straight PPI, which includes all prices in the survey. The other is "core" PPI, which is the same as the PPI except it excludes energy and food prices. Economists say those are so volatile they can skew the picture, and excluding them allows us to see the underlying trend.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting today for each of the four figures:
- May PPI — 0.2%, way warmer than April's -0.5%
- YOY PPI — No forecast, but this was 2.4% in April
- May core PPI — 0.3%, higher than April's -0.1%
- YOY core PPI — No forecast, but this was 2.9% in April
Again, we need lower-than-expected numbers to stand a decent chance of falling mortgage rates. That's what happened with yesterday's CPI.
Tomorrow
Friday should bring the preliminary June reading of the consumer sentiment index. That's expected to improve, rising to 54.0 from 52.2 previously.
