The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.87%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.21%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.24%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
A few weeks ago, a CNN Business e-newsletter delivered a memorable simile. Well, not memorable enough for us to remember it word for word, but it roughly said: The stock market is your fun friend who's out for a good time. The bond market is your dad, who reminds you when it's time to change the oil in your car.
The message was to trust the bond market over serious economic stuff and ignore what's happening to stocks. That's especially important for you and us because the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS), largely determines mortgage rates.
Treasury auctions
We'll see tomorrow how worried bond market investors are when the U.S. Treasury auctions $39 billion in 10-year notes. MBS yields and mortgage rates often shadow yields on 10-year notes.
The following day, another Treasury auction will offer $22 billion in 30-year bonds. Bond markets will be closely monitoring how demand at these auctions holds up.
Some are worried that foreign investors are avoiding U.S. assets such as Treasurys and the dollar, which might mute that demand. If they're right, that could push up yields on Treasuries, dragging MBS yields (and mortgage rates) with them.
There are two reasons investors might not be as keen to buy Treasurys as they once were:
- Tariffs might bring about a spike in inflation that could prove "sticky," meaning persistent.
- The tax-and-spending bill that is currently in Congress may increase the government's borrowing requirement by trillions over the next decade, allowing investors to demand higher yields to keep extending credit.
CPI
Also tomorrow, we're due the consumer price index (CPI) for May. That's often important in its own right, but it might be even more consequential than normal because it could influence demand for those two Treasury auctions.
High inflation is kryptonite for bond investors, so we must hope that the CPI comes in no higher than markets are expecting. Keep reading for market expectations.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | -0.04% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.87% | 5.92% | -0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.21% | 7.41% | -0.02% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.47% | -0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.14% | 6.28% | +-0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.24% | 7.26% | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.93% | 6.97% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.94% | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | -0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.39% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.36% | 6.51% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.03% | 7.06% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting later this week:
"Inflation data will drive the economic narrative this week. The CPI and PPI [producer price index] probably rose modestly in May due to lower energy prices, while core CPI and PPI likely accelerated as businesses began passing tariffs on to their customers. The University of Michigan and NY Fed’s surveys of consumers are expected to show consumer inflation expectations edged lower but are still elevated, after the U.S. and China agreed to substantially reduce tariffs for 90 days. The partial tariff reprieve, along with the stock market’s outperformance in May, likely lifted consumer and business sentiment. The federal government likely posted a hefty deficit in May, as some of June’s outlays, such as social security payments and salaries, were made in May, since the first of June fell on a weekend."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
There is only one economic report on the MarketWatch economic calendar today. But tends not to influence mortgage rates much — or at all.
It is the small business optimism index for May from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Markets expect it to show a small improvement: up to 96.0 from 95.8.
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged. But we'll be surprised if today's report affects mortgage rates perceptibly.
Tomorrow's CPI contains four headline numbers. Two cover the reporting month (May). And the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, in this case, for Jun 1, 2024 - May 31, 2025.
One for each period is the straight CPI, which includes all prices in the survey. The other is "core" CPI, which is the same as the CPI except it excludes energy and food prices.
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting for each of the four figures:
- May CPI — 0.2%, unchanged since April
- YOY CPI — 2.4%, slightly higher than April's 2.3%
- May core CPI — 0.3%, slightly higher than April's 0.2%
- YOY core CPI — 2.9%, slightly higher than April's 2.8%
Again, we need lower-than-expected numbers to stand a decent chance of falling mortgage rates.
Thursday and Friday
The CPI's little brother, the producer price index or PPI, is scheduled for Thursday. It's usually much less influential than its big sister, but mortgage rates might still be vulnerable if it delivers unexpectedly bad news.
Friday should bring the preliminary June reading of the consumer sentiment index. We'll brief you more fully on both the PPI and that report before they're published.
