The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.83% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.85%, up by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.14%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.18%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
This morning's jobs report (aka employment situation report) for May was likely bad for mortgage rates. Read on for the figures, but they were unexpectedly good for the economy and bad for inflation.
Markets had been expecting the labor market to hold up worse than today's data suggest. Mortgage rates typically rise when a report delivers better-than-expected (for the economy) numbers and fall when those are worse than expected.
Sure enough, yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgage rates tend to shadow, were rising soon after the jobs report was published.
Yesterday
Mortgage rates edged higher yesterday, though the change was nothing like as dramatic as Wednesday's fall. So, for once, those rates begin this morning lower than they were a week ago.
The trigger for the modest rise was likely the announcement of the imminent resumption of trade talks with China following a "very good" phone call between the two countries' presidents, according to MarketWatch.
Just as mortgage rates fell on Wednesday's introduction of a new, high tariff on steel and aluminum (along with some disappointing economic data), they rose yesterday at the prospect of tariff reductions through renewed trade talks. This isn't a surprise. Those rates routinely rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's struggling.
Also yesterday, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending May 31 came in higher than expected, while productivity in the first quarter plunged lower than expected. Both of those may have helped mortgage rates fall.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.86% | +0.08% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.9% | +0.11% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 7.34% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.41% | -0.02% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.26% | -0.11% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.18% | 7.2% | +-0% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.66% | 6.69% | -0.06% | -0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.93% | +0.05% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.89% | +0.1% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.12% | 7.32% | -0.01% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | -0.03% | -0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | -0.09% | -0.16% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
Here are this morning's jobs report data for May (in bold), along with market expectations according to the MarketWatch economic calendar:
- May nonfarm payrolls (jobs created that month) — Actual 139,000. Markets expected 125,000, down from April's 177,000
- Unemployment rate — Actual 4.2%. Markets expected 4.2%, unchanged since April
- Average hourly earnings — Actual 0.4%. Expected to rise by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in April
You can see that, while job creation has slowed, it's still higher than markets were expecting. The unemployment was as expected. And the pace at which hourly average wages rose was faster than anticipated.
To repeat, lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
There's an exception with average earnings because higher-than-anticipated ones suggest inflation might be warming up, something that's almost always bad for mortgage rates.
Next week
Next Wednesday should bring the consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation. This is often the second most important economic report in any given month after the jobs report. It can be even more consequential than that if it delivers wildly unexpected numbers.
