The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.77% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.74%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
We're almost as tired of writing about how markets have been ignoring economic reports as you must have grown reading about it. But things changed yesterday.
Mortgage rates fell appreciably that day. And it was likely a result of weak economic data.
"Treasury yields ... were extending their decline as investors reacted to data that showed private-sector payrolls disappointed in May and that the services sector edged into contraction," said MarketWatch. "That fall in Treasury yields, accompanied by rising expectations for more than one rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, was a result of the weak data, Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, told MarketWatch."
As usual, mortgage rates shadowed yields on 10-year Treasurys yesterday.
Tariffs still important
There may have been another factor in play. "Tariffs on steel and aluminum doubled to 50 percent Wednesday, adding higher costs and new uncertainty for businesses across the country that rely on metal imports for machinery, construction and manufacturing," reported The Wall Street Journal. " ... for American companies that rely on specialized metals that aren’t available domestically, the order set off a fresh scramble to raise prices and rethink hiring and investment."
Disappointing payrolls, a contracting services sector, and a major challenge to an important part of the manufacturing sector are all things that would normally exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. So, yesterday's events wouldn't have been a surprise were markets to have been responding to data normally in recent months.
The new normal likely hasn't disappeared
One day's movement in mortgage rates doesn't necessarily herald a change in how markets are working. But it does raise the prospect of this Friday's jobs report for May having a larger impact than we previously thought.
Looking further ahead, who knows? The 90-day pause on most tariffs is due to end in about a month, and there's scope for plenty of news on trade deals (or lack thereof) between now and then. Generally, the fewer tariffs there are and the lower they are, the better for mortgage rates.
Meanwhile, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) is due to be picked up by the Senate soon. Markets are worried that this tax and spending package could increase the deficit by trillions over the next 10 years. Will senators amend it sufficiently to allay those fears? Mortgage rates might fall if they do.
Investors hate the current high levels of uncertainty across these and other issues. And they may calm down once that lifts, even if the cards don't all fall their way. But, for now, we share their uncertainty about what's next for the economy, markets and mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.8% | -0.05% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.74% | 5.79% | -0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 7.34% | +0.02% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.28% | 6.43% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0.1% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.19% | 7.2% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | +0.01% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.87% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.74% | 5.78% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 7.32% | +0.02% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.84% | -0.04% | -0.07% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's Comerica Bank's opinion on what this week's remaining economic reports might bring:
"Employers likely added jobs at a modest pace in May as businesses waited to see how tariff policies ultimately settle out. The unemployment rate likely held unchanged, with modest growth of employment and of the labor force. Wage growth likely slowed in year-over-year terms. The labor force participation rate likely edged lower on the month. The trade deficit likely shrank in April as the rush to beat tariffs ended. Both imports and exports likely fell in the month as higher tariffs kicked in."
Mortgage rates today
Once again, we're due three economic reports this morning, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 — Markets expect a small dip to 236,000 from 240,000 a week earlier
- April trade deficit — Markets expect this to shrink to $63.3 billion from $140.5 billion in March
- Productivity in the first quarter of 2025 — Expected to hold steady at -0.8%
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
Tomorrow
Friday brings arguably this month's blockbuster data in the shape of the May jobs report. If it contains surprises, mortgage rates may move appreciably.
Given the data's importance, we'll delay publishing our report tomorrow morning until we can bring you the day's actual figures and markets' initial responses to them.
