The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.86% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.82%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.25%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) publishes a daily e-newsletter on developments affecting bond markets.
And yesterday's edition said, "Bond investors are closely monitoring labor market indicators, including the May employment report, to gauge future shifts in Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy. US Treasuries saw their first monthly decline this year in May amid fiscal concerns, and traders now anticipate two quarter-point rate cuts this year."
Meanwhile, that day, the Barron's Daily e-newsletter concurred under the headline, "Jobs Data This Week Could Set the Tone for June Markets."
So, we have three things in particular to keep an eye on this week:
- Friday's jobs report (aka the employment situation report) for May.
- News on tariffs — The New York Times' DealBook e-newsletter yesterday observed, "Beijing and Washington continued to exchange blame over who was undermining their truce."
- Developments in the passage of the "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill — That same Times newsletter said, "Republican senators are expected to begin closed-door talks on revisions to the House spending bill, as fiscal hawks continue to threaten the legislation ... "
Mortgage rates are likely to benefit if the jobs report contains lower-than-expected numbers and the Senate amends the tax bill in ways that allay fears it could trigger a spiraling deficit.
However, those rates could be affected either way by news on tariffs. If investors perceive a development as slowing the economy, that could send those rates lower. But, if they think it will cause higher inflation, mortgage rates might rise.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.89% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.86% | -0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.38% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | +-0% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.15% | 6.29% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.25% | 7.26% | -0.01% | +0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.84% | -0.03% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.91% | 6.94% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.81% | 5.86% | -0.03% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7.37% | +0.01% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.39% | 6.53% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.89% | +0.13% | -0.01% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's Comerica Bank's opinion on what this week's economic reports might bring:
"Employers likely added jobs at a modest pace in May as businesses waited to see how tariff policies ultimately settle out. The unemployment rate likely held unchanged, with modest growth of employment and of the labor force. Wage growth likely slowed in year-over-year terms. The labor force participation rate likely edged lower on the month. Job openings were likely lower in the latest release, released at a one-month lag to payroll employment growth and the unemployment rate.
"PMI surveys likely improved in May as financial market conditions stabilized and lower tariffs cheered consumers and businesses. Businesses likely reported slightly less input price inflation, helped by lower prices of steel and crude oil. Car and light truck sales likely fell in the month, though, as consumers’ scramble to front-run tariff price hikes petered out. The trade deficit likely shrank in April as the rush to beat tariffs ended. Both imports and exports likely fell in the month as higher tariffs kicked in."
Mortgage rates today
We're due two economic reports this morning, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Factory orders in April — Markets expect these to tumble to a -3.3% contraction from +4.3% growth in March
- April's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Job openings are expected to inch down to 7.1 million from 7.2 million
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
However, both today's reports are two months old, which tends to blunt their impact on markets and mortgage rates.
This week
Friday brings arguably this month's blockbuster data in the shape of the May jobs report. If it contains surprises, mortgage rates may move appreciably.
