The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.86%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.17%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.26%, reflecting a decrease of 0.25%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely budged last week. But, luckily, the little movement there was turned out to be downward. Still, the average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage remains perilously close to 7%.
In normal times, the economic reports that were published last week might have had a noticeable effect on those rates. But markets seem determined to shrug off data.
Some say that's because many investors are convinced the government will back off the high tariff rates that are currently on hold. And they doubt that the "Big, Beautiful" tax and spending bill now working its way through Congress will be passed in its current form.
Jamie Dimon's warning
However, not everyone is so optimistic. On Saturday, a Barron's e-newsletter said, " ... the tariff turmoil has put even greater scrutiny on the bond market and the U.S.’s spiraling deficit, which the [big beautiful] bill, in its current form, would add to"
Over the weekend, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon "delivered a dire warning," according to The Wall Street Journal. “You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?” Dimon said during an interview. “It is going to happen.”
The Journal added context: Bond markets have been rattled by the prospect that the already wobbly fiscal situation in the U.S. will worsen, should tax legislation ... become law. A House-passed measure would increase projected budget deficits by some $2.7 trillion over a decade, adding to a national debt that already stands at more than $36 trillion."
On Friday, Jeff Sommer explained in The New York Times why we who want lower mortgage rates should be concerned about bond markets. "Rising bond yields demand to be noticed because they have a range of negative consequences: Mortgage rates rise, economic activity can slow, stock markets tend to sputter and the cost of doing business steepens throughout the economy," he wrote. "When yields get high enough, a government that finances much of its activities through borrowing, as the United States does, may eventually find that it can’t function without imposing painful budget cuts, or raising taxes, or both — and outcomes like these will thwart any politician’s dreams. Moreover, because Treasuries and the dollar are the fulcrums for the global financial system, tremors in the U.S. Treasury market reverberate around the world."
Of course, economists are renowned for getting their forecasts wrong. And even Wall Street titans like Jamie Dimon aren't always right about everything. But, if you're thinking of buying a home soon, you should be aware of all possibilities.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | +0% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7.37% | -0.01% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | +0% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.15% | 6.29% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.26% | 7.27% | -0.25% | +0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.88% | -0.06% | +0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.01% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.89% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.16% | 7.36% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.39% | 6.54% | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | -0.26% | -0.14% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Three economic reports are due this morning, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar. Two are May purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector. The more important, from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is expected to dip slightly compared with April: to 48.5% from 48.7%.
The third is construction spending in April. That's expected to bounce back moderately after a poor March. Markets are expecting 0.2% growth following a -0.5% contraction.
Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
This week
Friday brings arguably the month's blockbuster data in the shape of the May jobs report. If it contains surprises, markets may have to pay attention to that one.
