The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.66% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.95%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Markets will watch closely this morning's inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Not only is this the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, but markets may also take it more seriously than usual.In the past, Wall Street has often focused more on the consumer price index (CPI), which comes out much earlier each month. But the PCE price index is a more accurate and complete survey. And, as importantly, the quality of CPI data has deteriorated in recent months.
So, today's publication could affect mortgage rates. Whether or not it does will depend on how far the actual figures vary from market expectations. Read on for details of those expectations.
The Fed held general interest rates steady yesterday
As pretty much everyone expected, the Fed left its federal funds rate untouched yesterday, despite political pressure to lower it. That directly affects many forms of consumer borrowing, but not mortgage rates.
The decision will have pleased many traditional economists, who believe that elevated tariff rates are likely to ultimately lead to higher inflation, even if that takes several months to appear in the data.
"The outcome of hand-to-hand combat over who will bear the burden of tariffs figures to shape the trajectory for inflation and hiring later this year, which could resolve whether and when the central bank resumes rate cuts in the months ahead," said The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
Mainstream economists will also be relieved that the Fed hasn't prematurely used its key anti-recession tool. By keeping rates at their current level, the central bank will have more space to cut rates if the economy slows and needs some stimulus later.
However, not everyone agrees with that classical analysis. Indeed, two members of the Fed's rate-setting committee failed to back yesterday's decision. "It was the first meeting since 2020 in which more than one Fed official voted against [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell, and the first since 1993 in which more than one board governor dissented," noted the Journal.
Month-end jitters
Today is the last day of the month. And that's when many investors make last-minute trades to tidy up their portfolios.
This tidying up sometimes leads to counterintuitive movements in markets and mortgage rates that make little sense unless you're aware of what's happening in the background.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.66% | 6.68% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.95% | 7.15% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.03% | 6.17% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6% | 6.14% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.92% | 6.94% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | +0.03% | +0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.75% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.93% | 7.13% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.21% | -0.03% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.87% | +0.05% | +0.29% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on this week's data:
"The FOMC [the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee] will almost certainly hold the fed funds rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its decision Wednesday. Chair Powell will probably reiterate that the Fed sets monetary policy independent of political considerations at the press conference after the decision. The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP will probably show a rebound after the first quarter’s contraction, driven by large swings in trade and inventories. Inflation-adjusted final sales to private purchasers (households and businesses) are expected to be soft. The labor market likely cooled in July, with a modest addition to payrolls. The unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the average workweek were likely little changed last month. The last major monthly indicators for June likely showed job openings, construction spending, pending home sales, and personal incomes dipped, while consumer spending rose moderately. The ISM Manufacturing PMI probably will signal that the manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth month running in July. House price indexes probably fell again in May."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains four economic reports. But one is likely to overshadow the others.
That's the PCE price index for June. Like all price indices, this is broken down into four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (June), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures: price changes between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025.
For each period, there is a straight PCE price index that monitors all items in the survey. Then there is the "core" index, which is the same except that prices of food and energy are excluded. Leaving out those especially volatile prices reveals the underlying inflation trend.
Here are the four due today, including what markets are expecting and actual figures from the previous month:
- June PCE index — Expected to warm to 0.3% following 0.1% in May
- YOY PCE index — Expected to warm to 2.5% following 2.3% in May
- June core PCE index — Expected to warm to 0.3% following 0.2% in May
- YOY core PCE index — Expected to be unchanged from May at 2.7%
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. As-forecast numbers may barely affect those rates.
Other reports today comprise:
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending July 25 — Expected to increase to 222,000 from 217,000 the previous week
- Employment cost index for the second quarter — Expected to cool to 0.8% from 0.9% in the first quarter
- July Chicago Business Barometer — Expected to improve to 41.7 from June's 40.4
These rarely affect mortgage rates much, and are especially unlikely to be impactful on the day an important inflation report is released.
