The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.68% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.67%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.96%, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.91%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Today has the potential to be pivotal for mortgage rates. But "potential" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. It's perfectly possible that those rates will barely move in the coming hours.
Still, the potential is real for now — right up until it isn't. And it draws its strength from two main sources:
- This morning's gross domestic product (GDP) and unofficial employment data. We discuss those in more detail further down this page, under "Mortgage rates today."
- This afternoon's Federal Reserve report and news conference, due at 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. Eastern, respectively.
Fed day
The Fed events are more likely than the data to cause upsets in markets. Wall Street will parse every word in the report and pay close attention to the news conference, which will be hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Today's events will mark the end of a two-day meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC. So, it's possible that the report will announce a cut in general interest rates.
However, hardly anybody thinks it will. The CME FedWatch tool, which measures investor opinion by monitoring trades in fed funds futures, put the chances of rates remaining unchanged today at 97.9%. Yes, just 2.1% of investors reckon it's worth wagering on a cut today.
What Wall Street wants to hear this afternoon is hints that the FOMC is planning to cut general interest rates at its next meeting, scheduled for September 17.The stronger any such hints are, the more likely mortgage rates are to fall. But any perceived reservations about a cut at that meeting could push those rates higher.
The Fed and mortgage rates
The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. That's the job of the bond market in which mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) are traded.And some suggest that the Fed doesn't even influence those rates, citing examples of days when the Fed cuts general rates but mortgage rates hold steady or even rise a little. But we believe that happens because investors trade MBSs ahead of events, effectively betting on outcomes.
That means a widely anticipated Fed rate cut will already have been baked into mortgage rates well before an announcement is made. So, MBS yields need to go up or down only if an announcement contains a surprise, something that happens rarely.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | -0.03% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.72% | -0.02% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 7.16% | -0.06% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.2% | -0.06% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.99% | 6.14% | -0.08% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.91% | 6.93% | -0.01% | +-0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.7% | 6.74% | -0.02% | +0.19% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | -0.04% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.72% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 7.14% | -0.06% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.24% | -0.06% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.83% | -0.05% | +0.23% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on this week's data:
"The FOMC [the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee] will almost certainly hold the fed funds rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its decision Wednesday. Chair Powell will probably reiterate that the Fed sets monetary policy independent of political considerations at the press conference after the decision. The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP will probably show a rebound after the first quarter’s contraction, driven by large swings in trade and inventories. Inflation-adjusted final sales to private purchasers (households and businesses) are expected to be soft. The labor market likely cooled in July, with a modest addition to payrolls. The unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the average workweek were likely little changed last month. The last major monthly indicators for June likely showed job openings, construction spending, pending home sales, and personal incomes dipped, while consumer spending rose moderately. The ISM Manufacturing PMI probably will signal that the manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth month running in July. House price indexes probably fell again in May."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains three economic reports. Two stand the best chance of moving mortgage rates:
- Second-quarter gross domestic product — Expected to jump to 2.3% growth following a -0.5% contraction in the first quarter
- July ADP employment report covering only public-sector jobs — Expected to improve, with 64,000 new jobs this month compared with a loss of 33,000 jobs in June
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. As-forecast numbers may barely affect those rates.
Markets may not take today's numbers as seriously as they usually might. MarketWatch suggested yesterday, "GDP might show a big pop on Wednesday, but not because the U.S. economy has gotten much better. It hasn’t." So, why the widely varying figures? Because of "on-again, off-again tariffs," says the article. Meanwhile, many saw ADP's June job losses as an outlier.
This morning's other report is pending home sales in June. They're expected to slow to 0.2% compared with 1.8% in May. But these figures rarely affect mortgage rates.
