The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.7% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.69%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.02%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.93%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Well, Sunday's news about a trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) had much less impact on markets and mortgage rates than we expected. As Barron's put it, "Wall Street initially applauded, but by the end of trading Monday, cheers had turned into a shrug."
Indeed, mortgage rates barely moved Monday. That may be partly down to questions that were already swirling around the announcement yesterday.
For example, the deal said the EU would buy $750 billion in U.S. energy products over the next three years. However, MarketWatch interviewed energy sector experts who were highly skeptical. One called the plan "absurd" and another "wholly unrealistic."
Gloom in financial media
In his DealBook e-newsletter for The New York Times yesterday, Andrew Ross Sorkin raised another big issue. Before "Liberation Day," on April 2, the tariff rate on EU imports was roughly 4.8%. And the new deal at 15% on most of those imports would mean "locking in increased costs for European goods. While it avoids a worst-case scenario, businesses will still face higher import duties — and U.S. consumers will probably pay more. The E.U.’s commitments to buy U.S. goods largely formalize existing trends. Crucially, the agreement doesn’t address [America's] core complaints, including European digital taxes on tech giants and other nontariff barriers."
The Barron's Daily e-newsletter was similarly downbeat yesterday. "Tariffs still act as a tax on consumers, at least according to classical economic theory," it said. "Setting the rate is one thing, dealing with the results is another."
And it continued: " ... attention will [soon] turn to inflation and jobs data — due Thursday and Friday, respectively. With the payroll report landing the same day as [the] Aug. 1 deadline for trade deals to be done before higher tariffs kick in, there’s the chance of a shock at the end of the week."
With such gloom in financial media, we may have been unlucky not to have seen mortgage rates fall yesterday.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.73% | -0.03% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | +-0% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.02% | 7.22% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.11% | 6.26% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.21% | +-0% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.93% | 6.94% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | -0.01% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.81% | -0.01% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 7.2% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.16% | 6.3% | +0% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.88% | +0% | +0.19% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on the rest of this week:
"The FOMC [the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee] will almost certainly hold the fed funds rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its decision Wednesday. Chair Powell will probably reiterate that the Fed sets monetary policy independent of political considerations at the press conference after the decision. The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP [gross domestic product] will probably show a rebound after the first quarter’s contraction, driven by large swings in trade and inventories. Inflation-adjusted final sales to private purchasers (households and businesses) are expected to be soft. The labor market likely cooled in July, with a modest addition to payrolls. The unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the average workweek were likely little changed last month. The last major monthly indicators for June likely showed job openings, construction spending, pending home sales, and personal incomes dipped, while consumer spending rose moderately. The ISM Manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers index] probably will signal that the manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth month running in July. House price indexes probably fell again in May."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains several economic reports. Two stand the best chance of moving mortgage rates:
- July consumer confidence index — Expected to improve, rising to 95.4 compared with June's 93.0
- June job openings — Expected to worsen, falling to 7.5 million from 7.8 million in May
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. As-forecast numbers may barely affect those rates.
Other reports scheduled for today include June data for the trade balance in goods, and inventories for the retail and wholesale sectors. We're also due May's S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities). However, none of these typically affects mortgage rates perceptibly.
