The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.73% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.69%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.01%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.93%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved last week. But this week could be very different. And that could start today.
"The European Union and the United States agreed on Sunday to a broad-brush trade deal that sets a 15 percent tariff on most E.U. goods,
including cars, averting what could have become a painful trade war with a bloc that is the United States’ single biggest source of imports," reported The New York Times yesterday. While 15% for the E.U. is a higher tariff rate than the one at the start of this year, it's better than the 20% proposed on April 2, aka "Liberation Day."
American markets are likely to welcome the news, and that could send both stocks and mortgage rates higher today. Already, European markets have responded positively. Overnight, "Germany’s Dax rose 0.8% in early trading, France’s Cac 40 gained 1%, while Spain’s Ibex gained 0.8%," says The Guardian.
Future mortgage rates and homeownership affordability
This week is crowded with important economic reports and events. The most consequential for mortgage rates is typically the jobs report, due Friday.
That's preceded by Thursday's inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. It's long been the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation because it's a more refined and complete analysis than the consumer price index (CPI).
Markets may soon take the PCE index more seriously, too. " ... almost a third of the prices going into the CPI at the moment are guesses based on other data collections in the CPI," writes Dr. Torsten Sløk, chief economist for Apollo. That's a significant reduction on the 10% of data that were estimated until recently, and might increase Wall Street analysts' reliance on the PCE index.
Meanwhile, the Fed will complete a two-day meeting of its rate-setting body on Wednesday. The CME Fedwatch tool yesterday put the odds of rates remaining unchanged that day at 97.4%.
So, very few are expecting a rate cut, but markets will carefully read the Fed's written report on Wednesday, and closely follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern that afternoon. They'll be looking for hints that a cut in general interest rates is likely at the next meeting on Sept. 17, when most investors expect one.
There are plenty more reports due this week, though these are the ones most likely to affect mortgage rates. As always, we'll brief you more fully on each before it's published.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.76% | -0.01% | +0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | -0.02% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 7.21% | +0% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | +0% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.22% | +0.01% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.93% | 6.95% | +0.01% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.05% | +0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.79% | 6.82% | +0.01% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | -0.02% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.99% | 7.19% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.88% | +-0% | +0.19% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows no economic reports due. Tomorrow should bring the July consumer confidence index along with June's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and some lesser data.
