The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.73% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.03%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
If you read this column often, you may think we're obsessed with three things: tariffs, deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve. You'd probably be right.
But we're fixated with these only because markets are, too. And we think they're the most likely drivers of significant changes in mortgage rates over at least the next few months.
That's not to say economic reports are suddenly unimportant. But the more consequential ones (concerning jobs, inflation and retail sales) tend to be viewed as indicators of whether markets' fears over tariffs and deficits are being confirmed or allayed by new data.
Two pieces of relevant news emerged yesterday that could affect mortgage rates. The first concerned tariffs.
Tariff news
The U.S. has completed a trade deal with Japan that would see a 15% tariff levied on all imports from that country. That's higher than 2024's rates but lower than the 25% markets had feared.
The hope now is that a similar deal can be concluded with the European Union, America's biggest trading partner, and others.
Economists still disagree about how tariffs will affect growth and inflation. Optimists think their impact will be minimal and point to recent economic data as proof. Pessimists believe they'll cause an economic slowdown and fuel inflation. They say it's too soon for their impact to appear in the data.
Deficit news
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.76% | +0.04% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.77% | +0.04% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.03% | 7.23% | +0.06% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.26% | +0.06% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.25% | +0.11% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.92% | 6.94% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.12% | +0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.84% | +0.06% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.76% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 7.21% | +0.05% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.16% | 6.31% | +0.06% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.88% | +0.16% | +0.15% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and the Federal Reserve are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting from this week's reports:
"New home sales likely rebounded slightly in June from depressed levels in May ... The housing market is in a funk, held back by high mortgage rates, bad affordability, and rising homeowners’ insurance premiums. Home listings are above late 2010s levels in the Sunbelt metros that boomed post-pandemic, but still below them in slower-growing metros on the Pacific Coast, in the Midwest, and in the Northeast. Strong growth of housing supply in the Sunbelt is translating into modest house price declines, although prices are still much higher than they were five or ten years ago.
"The manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) published by S&P Global likely improved modestly in the July flash readings as businesses anticipate a boost to sales in 2026 from the tax cut. The surveys will likely show input price inflation continues to run hotter than in 2024 or 2023. Durable goods orders likely pulled back in June after a surge in May fueled by higher aircraft orders."
Mortgage rates today
Finally, some potentially consequential economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That's not to say they'll necessarily affect mortgage rates perceptibly. They may well not. But they're the most interesting ones in a boring week.
Here are today's four reports, two of which are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), along with market expectations for each:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 — Markets expect 227,000 new claims, up from the previous week's 221,000
- July flash* PMI for the services sector from S&P Global — Markets expect 53.2, up from June's 52.9
- July flash* PMI for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — Markets expect 52.7, slightly down from June's 52.9
- June new home sales — Markets expect 645,000 annualized, up from May's 623,000
There has been very little on this week's calendar that typically moves mortgage rates far — or at all. And tomorrow's durable goods orders for June are as unexciting as most of the others.
