The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.7% yesterday, an increase of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.66%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.94% yesterday, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.99%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Markets were in uproar after tariff announcements on April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day" by some. Indeed, one week later, on April 9, most of those tariffs were paused for 90 days, perhaps in response to the pain the import levies were inflicting on holders of stocks and bonds.
The 90-day pause ends on Wednesday, although it has been extended for most for a little over three weeks.
Yesterday brought more news on tariffs:
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed tariffs would remain at current levels for those without trade deals until August 1.
- The White House also released the contents of seven letters sent to foreign governments outlining the tariffs they would face if trade deals were not signed before August 1. The two most important were to Japan and South Korea, both of which would have a 25% rate.
- On Truth Social, the president warned that countries aligning with the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, plus others) against U.S. interests would face an additional 10% tariff.
The Wall Street Journal recorded falls in major stock indices and noted, "Treasury yields moved higher, reflecting concerns that heavier tariffs would lead to higher inflation. The 10-year yield settled at 4.394%, up from 4.339% Thursday." Mortgage rates typically shadow yields on 10-year Treasury notes, and they rose, too.
Mortgage News Daily's archive reveals mortgage rates have now fallen on three consecutive business days, returning them to levels last seen on June 25.
Markets continue to face considerable uncertainty, and that may appear as greater volatility as further news emerges.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.73% | +0.06% | -0.14% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.71% | +0.03% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 7.15% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.18% | +0.02% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.01% | 6.16% | +0.05% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.99% | 7.01% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0.01% | +0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0.03% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.71% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.92% | 7.13% | +0.03% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.09% | 6.24% | +0.05% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.84% | +0.03% | +0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
In its Comerica Economic Weekly, Comerica Bank's economics team reveals its expectations for the coming few days:
"In a quiet week for economic releases, the most important will be the minutes of the Fed’s June decision. They will probably reinforce thatthe Committee expected to hold interest rates steady at their July decision when they met in June. The federal budget balance likely swung from a deficit in May to a surplus in June, with tariffs boosting receipts. Consumer credit likely rose solidly in June, marking another big monthly increase. Consumers tapped revolving credit to support spending last month, with aggregate payrolls flat. Continued unemployment insurance claims likely moved higher in late June as workers losing jobs took longer to find new employment amid anemic hiring."
Mortgage rates today
Two economic reports appear on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- June optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business — Expected to inch lower to 98.7 from May's 98.8
- May consumer credit — Expected to fall sharply to $10.0 billion from April's $17.9 billion. Note that Comerica thinks this will rise
Don't expect much reaction in markets to these two relatively uninfluential reports. Indeed, we shouldn't be surprised if all this week's reports fail to attract enough attention to perceptibly affect mortgage rates.
The one event that might is due on Wednesday afternoon, when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting committee. We already know quite a lot about what happened during that meeting. But there's an outside chance the minutes will reveal something new.
