The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.63% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.63%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.92%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.98%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
We now have the figures from the June jobs report, published earlier this morning. And they're looking disappointing for mortgage rates. Read on for more details.
Yesterday's ADP employment report was a real shocker. Markets had expected the private sector to create 100,000 new Jobs in June, well up from May's 37,000. But there were no new jobs that month. Indeed, the sector destroyed 33,000 jobs.
That was very bad indeed, and we'd normally expect such a shocking number to send mortgage rates tumbling. But it didn't. In fact, those rates rose moderately higher.
There might be two reasons for this:
- Wall Street didn't believe yesterday's numbers, and reckoned today's much more important jobs report would deliver much better ones.
- Wall Street did believe yesterday's numbers, but assumed they would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates when it next meets on July 30.
It may well have been a combination of both of those. The CME FedWatch tool yesterday evening put the chances of a July 30 rate cut at 25.3%, higher than 24 hours earlier when they stood at 20.7%.
Jobs, tariffs and deficits are now all big news
MarketWatch published some analysis under the headline, "A sputtering jobs market is now a top risk for stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025." It said, "Investors worry that a slowing labor market could soon fall into a sinkhole, sparking a selloff in stocks and fresh anxiety in the all-important bond market."
And it went on to quote Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager for Brandywine Global Investment Management. "'There is less hiring going on, which makes sense,' he said. He isn’t expecting a meaningful deterioration to show up in the June jobs data, but he does anticipate it to weaken in the months ahead as companies adjust to Trump’s tariffs and other aspects of his sweeping agenda."
Meanwhile, Barron's wrote, "Bond prices fluctuate depending on which narrative—that of Treasury buyers or sellers—is dominating the market at the moment. But right now, the battle between the two looks to be at a stalemate, thanks to the many competing forces contained in President Donald Trump’s tax and spending megabill."
This morning, as we published, The Wall Street Journal was reporting, "The House is set to vote on President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill after overcoming resistance from some Republican members."
Regardless of the impact of today's jobs report, markets remain hyper-sensitive to news about the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and tariffs.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.63% | 6.66% | +0.02% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.92% | 7.13% | +0.06% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.16% | +0.04% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.96% | 6.1% | +0.08% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.98% | 7% | +0.04% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.71% | 6.74% | +0.19% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.72% | 6.74% | +0.05% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.68% | +0.06% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.9% | 7.1% | +0.05% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.19% | +0.06% | -0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.81% | +0.2% | -0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
You won't need reminding that markets will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day celebrations. We'll be taking the day off, too, and will be back on Monday.
Mortgage rates today
By far the most important report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar is the June jobs report, formally called the employment situation report. Most months, it's the most consequential of all economic reports.
Here are this morning's most important actual figures (in bold), along with market expectations before publication and May's actual numbers:
- Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created during June) — 147,000. Markets expected 110,000, down from May's 139,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.1%. Markets expected 4.3%, up from May's 4.2%
- Average hourly wages — 0.2%. Markets expected 0.2%, down from May's 0.4%
You can see that the labor market was in much better shape than most analysts thought. Contrary to expectations, job creation was robust, and the unemployment rate actually fell. This would normally push mortgage rates higher.
However, if the One Big Beautiful Bill passes the House this morning, that could distract investors. Markets close early today for tomorrow's public holiday, so they won't have long to decide where to look.
There are other reports on today's calendar, including two June purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the services sector, and May figures for both the trade deficit and factory orders. However, these would have to contain seriously shocking figures for them to avoid being wholly overshadowed by the jobs report.
