The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.59% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.57%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
After a pause last Friday, mortgage rates resumed their run of consistent falls yesterday. They've risen on only five business days in the last month, and not at all since June 16, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive.
One reason for that may be that they're not competing as much as usual with longer-term bonds issued by businesses. "Higher interest rates and a rapidly changing policy landscape ... have left many big U.S. corporations unwilling to make longer-term financing commitments in the bond market," explains MarketWatch.
"'There’s been a lot more issuance 10 years and in, [meaning fewer 20- and 30-year bonds]' said Kyle Stegemeyer, head of investment-grade debt capital markets and syndicate at U.S. Bancorp" in an interview with MarketWatch. "Their focus, he noted, has been on refinancing coming maturities and navigating near-term risks like tariffs, rates and economic uncertainty."
In other words, mortgage-backed securities (MBSs, the bonds that largely determine mortgage rates) no longer have to pay as high a yield to be attractive because investors have fewer options when buying debt.
Tariffs and deficits
We wrote extensively yesterday about tariffs and deficits, and their potential effects on mortgage rates. Here are a couple of updates.
Tariffs
Speaking on Bloomberg Television, "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Monday that countries negotiating trade deals with the United States could still face steep tariff hikes on July 9, even if talks are ongoing," reports Newsweek."We have countries that are negotiating in good faith," Bessent said, "but they should be aware that if we can't get across the line ... we could spring back to the April 2 levels."
You may remember that tariff rates on April 2 were exceptionally high for many countries. A resumption at those levels next Wednesday would likely impede economic growth, both in the U.S. and globally. And that would typically put downward pressure on mortgage rates.
In its latest survey of clients, published yesterday, McKinsey and Company says: "Respondents increasingly point to changes in trade policy—which include tariffs—as a risk to the global economy, their countries’ economic growth, and their companies’ performance. In each case, the share citing these changes as a risk has more than doubled since last June."
The risk here is that renewed high tariff rates might also cause a spike in inflation. And those almost always send mortgage rates higher.
However, it could take months for inflation to show up in economic data, perhaps providing a window of opportunity for mortgage shoppers.
Deficits
Here's The Wall Street Journal yesterday afternoon explaining what's happening in the Senate about the "One Big Beautiful Bill:""WASHINGTON—Senate Republicans charged forward Monday with a marathon session to pass President Trump’s 'big, beautiful bill,' as the party races to get the legislation to the president’s desk by its self-imposed July 4 deadline.
"The voting on amendments and procedural motions is expected to last many hours as various GOP factions seek to push the bill in their favored direction on charged political issues such as changes to Medicaid, food-assistance programs and tax cuts. Centrists are fighting to limit cuts to benefit programs and potentially reel back changes to clean-energy tax credits. Fiscal conservatives argue that the sprawling domestic-policy bill is a prime opportunity to address the nation’s rising debt, and they are pushing for deeper spending cuts."
If the fiscal conservatives win, that would likely be good news for mortgage rates, though not for poorer Americans. Some economists are concerned that sharp rises in the national debt will make all borrowing more expensive for the government, businesses and consumers. And, yes, that would include higher mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.62% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.19% | +-0% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.21% | +0.01% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.09% | 6.24% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.92% | 6.94% | +0% | -0.59% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.55% | +0% | -0.38% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.65% | 6.67% | +-0% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +0.02% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 7.16% | +-0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.24% | +0.01% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.56% | 6.59% | +-0% | -0.42% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on the economic reports due this week:
"Employment growth likely slowed to a modest pace in June. The unemployment rate likely held steady, but the labor force participation rate probably edged lower from May. Lower demand for labor probably translated into modest increases in wages and a slightly shorter
workweek. Job postings, released at a lag to employment, likely edged down in May. Construction spending probably declined again due to a
pullback in residential and non-residential investment. Geopolitical tensions are anticipated to have weighed on business sentiment, holding
both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs in the red. The trade deficit in goods and services likely widened in May."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows four economic reports due. Two are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector, one from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and the other from S&P Global.
Here are market expectations for today's reports:
- May construction spending — Markets expect a contraction of -0.1%, better than April's -0.4%
- June ISM manufacturing PMI — Markets expect 48.6%, slightly higher than May's 48.5%
- June S&P Global manufacturing PMI — Markets expect 52.0, unchanged since May
- May job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Markets expect 7.3 million job vacancies, down from April's 7.4 million
With most reports, higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often exert downward pressure. We'll be surprised if anything other than real surprises in today's reports affects those rates.
Also this morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech. Markets will listen to hear if his thinking on future cuts to general interest rates has evolved since last week's Congressional testimony and his news conference the previous week. We're not expecting significant changes, but who knows?
