The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.16% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.36%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.6% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates have been lazily drifting downward for the past several days. At 6.15% at yesterday's close, they're still considerably higher than the 6.03% seen on Jan. 12, but moderately lower than Jan. 20's 6.20%, their recent peak.
All those figures are based on ICanBuy's data for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. We can't identify any particular reason for the downward mini-trend, which may mean that rises and falls in the coming days have roughly equal probabilities.
The Fed today
At 2 p.m. Eastern today, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is scheduled to announce any change it will make this month to the federal funds rate, which affects most variable borrowing interest rates — but not existing fixed-rate mortgages. Thirty minutes later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell should host his usual post-meeting news conference.
It's hard to find anyone today who's predicting a change to the current rate. The CME FedWatch tool last night put the chances of a no-change announcement at 95.6%. If everyone's right, the announcement shouldn't noticeably affect mortgage rates.
Powell's news conference might affect those rates, but only if he hints at future rate changes.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 6.19% | -0.01% | +-0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.02% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.6% | 6.81% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.01% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.61% | 5.75% | +0.01% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | -0.02% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.07% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.22% | 6.24% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | -0.02% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.76% | -0.03% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | -0.03% | -0.01% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The Fed today (2)
Comerica Bank seems to agree with us that this week's economic reports are unlikely to affect markets much. So its preview of the week, delivered Monday in an e-newsletter, focuses on today's rate announcement by the Federal Reserve:
"Comerica forecasts the Fed will hold the federal funds target unchanged at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at Wednesday’s meeting. Inflation likely closed 2025 above target for the fifth straight year, and the modest growth of payrolls in November and December was still enough to make October’s contraction look like a one-off. These data give the Fed breathing room to wait for tariff-driven inflation to dissipate before considering further rate cuts. The Fed is expecting the tax cuts and spending increases in last July 4th's fiscal bill to boost economic activity and hiring this year, another reason to hold off on further cuts. The Fed won’t issue a new Dot Plot in January (“Summary of Economic Projections”) since the next quarterly Dot Plot comes out in March. The December 2025 Dot Plot showed that the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thought that just one cut of a quarter percent would be appropriate over the course of 2026.
"Markets will listen carefully to Chair Powell’s comments on the Fed’s independence at the post-meeting press conference, given the White House’s increasing pressure on the Fed to cut. If anything, the pressure campaign raises the bar for the Fed to cut near-term. The Fed’s policymakers see the credibility of their independence as essential if they want the public to expect inflation to meet their target in the long run, since expectations are largely self-fulfilling. The Fed was already managing a trade-off between supporting the job market and tamping down inflation before this pressure campaign intensified. Now the tradeoff is even more complicated: Yes, balancing the near-term outlook for the job market and inflation, but also convincing the public that they remain independent and their commitment to the inflation target is credible."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. We shouldn't be surprised if none of the remaining reports scheduled this week has even a minimal impact on mortgage rates.
If any does, it's likely to be Friday's producer price index (PPI), an inflation gauge that measures price changes at factory gates and in the wholesale phase of the supply chain. However, that's a little stale, being for December and therefore a month later than usual.
The U.S. Treasury is auctioning some government debt this week. The bulk ($256 billion) is made up of short-term bills, which aren't likely to affect mortgage rates. But another $183 billion comprises notes, which compete more directly with — and are therefore more likely to influence — those rates.
Thursday's $44 billion auction of seven-year notes might be one to keep an eye on. Low demand for those might push mortgage rates higher, while high demand could be good news.
