The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.17% yesterday, a decrease of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.38%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.62% yesterday, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.69%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
The Japanese currency and bond markets have been struggling recently. And that may have been affecting bond markets here, pushing up yields and mortgage rates.
The U.S. government "is worried about its affordability agenda. It may want to wall off the Treasury market — and thereby mortgage rates — from potential risks in Japan," says Barrons. Any such move should help mortgage rates.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court remains silent on its decision over the legality of most of 2025's tariffs. Normally, one might assume that a finding against the government would benefit mortgage rates. After all, last year those rates rose when tariffs were imposed.
However, such a finding would likely mean that the government would have to repay American companies for the tariffs already collected. And that's a lot of money that would have to be added to the U.S. deficit and debt.
Estimates range between $148.3 billion in the first 10 months of 2025 (Penn Wharton Budget Model) and $287 billion for the full calendar year (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond). Selling Treasury bonds to cover such sums might push up all borrowing costs, including mortgage rates. We'll have to wait to see how those conflicting pressures play out.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.17% | 6.2% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.43% | -0.01% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.86% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.6% | 5.74% | -0.06% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.7% | -0.02% | +0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.1% | -0.04% | -0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | +0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.02% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.91% | -0.03% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.12% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The week ahead
Comerica Bank seems to agree with us that this week's economic reports are unlikely to affect markets much. So its preview of the week, delivered yesterday in an e-newsletter, focuses on tomorrow's rate announcement by the Federal Reserve:
"Comerica forecasts the Fed will hold the federal funds target unchanged at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at Wednesday’s meeting. Inflation likely closed 2025 above target for the fifth straight year, and the modest growth of payrolls in November and December was still enough to make October’s contraction look like a one-off. These data give the Fed breathing room to wait for tariff-driven inflation to dissipate before considering further rate cuts. The Fed is expecting the tax cuts and spending increases in last July 4th's fiscal bill to boost economic activity and hiring this year, another reason to hold off on further cuts. The Fed won’t issue a new Dot Plot in January (“Summary of Economic Projections”) since the next quarterly Dot Plot comes out in March. The December 2025 Dot Plot showed that the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thought that just one cut of a quarter percent would be appropriate over the course of 2026.
"Markets will listen carefully to Chair Powell’s comments on the Fed’s independence at the post-meeting press conference, given the White House’s increasing pressure on the Fed to cut. If anything, the pressure campaign raises the bar for the Fed to cut near-term. The Fed’s policymakers see the credibility of their independence as essential if they want the public to expect inflation to meet their target in the long run, since expectations are largely self-fulfilling. The Fed was already managing a trade-off between supporting the job market and tamping down inflation before this pressure campaign intensified. Now the tradeoff is even more complicated: Yes, balancing the near-term outlook for the job market and inflation, but also convincing the public that they remain independent and their commitment to the inflation target is credible."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. We doubt either of them is going to have much impact on mortgage rates, but if either does, it's likely to be the consumer confidence index.
Today's reports are:
- January consumer confidence — Markets are expecting a small improvement to 90.0 from December's 89.1
- November Case Shiller 20-city home price index — Markets are expecting home price growth to slow minimally to 1.3% from October's 1.31%
Mortgage rates tend to fall when figures are lower than expected and rise when they're higher.
The U.S. Treasury is auctioning some government debt this week. The bulk ($256 billion) is made up of short-term bills, which aren't likely to affect mortgage rates. But another $183 billion comprises notes, which compete more directly with — and are therefore more likely to influence — those rates.
Thursday's $44 billion auction of seven-year notes might be one to keep an eye on. Low demand for those might push mortgage rates higher.
