The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.2% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.42%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.69%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.73%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"Stocks rallied [on Wednesday] after President Trump said that he had reached a framework of a Greenland deal with NATO that would take away the need for new tariffs on Europe," said The Wall Street Journal yesterday evening.
Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell on the news, although not by as much as they rose on Tuesday. However, mortgage rates, which often shadow that particular Treasury yield, barely budged.
With luck, they'll start this morning by falling as they catch up with bond markets. But whether that lasts will depend on what today's economic reports say.
If any reports appreciably affect mortgage rates this week, it will likely be this morning's inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) ones.
Some commentators were surprised that the Supreme Court did not publish its decision on the legality of nearly all of 2025's tariffs yesterday. Until that lands, it will be a Damoclean blade hanging over markets.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | +-0% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.47% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.69% | 6.9% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.91% | -0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.66% | 5.81% | -0.11% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.74% | -0.01% | +0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.11% | -0.01% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | -0.01% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | +0.03% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.85% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | -0.02% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.1% | 6.14% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
This week's star economic report is likely to be November's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due at 10 a.m. Eastern this morning. Ninety minutes earlier, we're expecting the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025.
Both these reports have been seriously delayed by the 2025 government shutdown. And that may blunt to some extent markets' reactions to them. They're hardly ancient history, but investors prefer the immediacy of fresh data.
Comerica Bank's economics team issued its usual weekly preview of what it thinks should be expected from economic reports:
"Delayed personal income and outlays reports will likely show that inflation held a solid notch above the Fed’s 2% target in October and November. Personal consumption expenditures were likely soft in October during the government shutdown, then bounced higher in November as the shutdown’s headwind abated. Personal income likely grew solidly in October and November. Delayed construction spending data will likely show that building activity began to recover in September and October, supported by the Fed’s rate cuts. Construction spending likely was still down from its recent peak in mid-2024."
Mortgage rates today
The potentially most important economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar is probably the personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) price index. It's the Federal Reserve's favored gauge of inflation.
Like all price indices, the PCE index has four headline numbers. Two of these cover the reporting month (November), and the others measure year-over-year (YOY) price changes (Dec. 1, 2024 - Nov. 30, 2025).
One for each reporting period measures changing prices across all the items in the survey. And the other for each period measures "core" inflation, which is all prices except those for food and energy.
Here's what markets are expecting (when available) for each of those four numbers:
- November index — Markets expect a 0.2% increase that month, better than September's 0.3%
- YOY index — No YOY forecast, but September was 2.8%
- November core index — Markets expect a 0.2% increase that month, unchanged from September
- YOY core index — No YOY forecast, but September was 2.8%
Mortgage rates tend to fall when figures are lower than expected and rise when they're higher.
That applies to this morning's other reports, too. They are:
- First reading of GDP in the third quarter of 2025 — Markets expect growth of 4.3%, the same as in the second quarter
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Jan. 17 — Markets expect 208,000 claims, up from the previous week's 198,000
