The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.2% yesterday, an increase of 0.09% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.38%, up by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having risen by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
"The Dow industrials lost 871 points, or 1.8%, the dollar weakened and Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year touching its highest level since August, said The Wall Street Journal yesterday evening, reporting on the day's trading. "Investors sought safety in traditional havens, pushing gold prices to a fresh record. The Swiss franc rallied."
The move higher for 10-year Treasury yields is particularly important for us because mortgage rates often shadow that particular yield. That was the case yesterday when those rates climbed rapidly.
That morning, we warned that "Markets may well respond to the weekend announcement" of new tariffs on some of our major trading partners in Europe. The question now is whether those markets are through responding or whether yesterday's rout will continue today. We'll find out shortly.
Another source of volatility might come into play this week. That's the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of almost all 2026 tariffs, which were implemented under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. However, The New York Times reported on Monday, "If the Supreme Court strikes down President Trump’s tariffs, the Trump administration plans to begin replacing them almost immediately with other levies, Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, said in an interview." So, markets may be in two minds about how to react.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | +0.09% | +0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.43% | +0.09% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.89% | +0.05% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.77% | 5.92% | +0.2% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | +0.03% | +0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.15% | -0.05% | +0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.3% | +0.1% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | +0.11% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +0.11% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | +0.05% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.14% | 6.17% | -0.02% | +0.1% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
This week's star economic report is likely to be November's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due Thursday. Also that day,
we're expecting the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025.
Other reports due this week are less likely to affect mortgage rates, although some, including today's, may have a limited impact.
Comerica Bank's economics team issued its usual weekly preview of what it thinks should be expected from economic reports:
"Delayed personal income and outlays reports will likely show that inflation held a solid notch above the Fed’s 2% target in October and November. Personal consumption expenditures were likely soft in October during the government shutdown, then bounced higher in November as the shutdown’s headwind abated. Personal income likely grew solidly in October and November. Delayed construction spending data will likely show that building activity began to recover in September and October, supported by the Fed’s rate cuts. Construction spending likely was still down from its recent peak in mid-2024."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- October construction spending — Markets expect a 0.1% increase in this spending that month, worse than August's 0.2%
- December pending home sales — Markets expect a 0.7% increase in such sales last month, worse than November's 3.3% increase
Don't expect much reaction in markets to either of these reports, especially if yesterday's volatility spills into today. They rarely affect mortgage rates much, even when investors don't have more important matters to attend to.
If mortgage rates do react, they tend to fall on smaller-than-expected numbers and rise on larger-than-expected figures, at least as far as these reports are concerned.
Stand by for tomorrow's inflation and GDP reports.
