The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.11% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.25%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.52% yesterday, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.63%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. They might have been helped by that day's economic reports, but MarketWatch has alternative explanations.
It suggests, "Soaring metals prices, geopolitical risks and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence are starting to raise concerns that inflation could accelerate by more than expected in 2026." That would normally push mortgage rates higher.
However, another concern jangling investors' nerves may help to explain why rates fell yesterday. That's the imminent release of the Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of the government's 2025 tariffs. The axing of these import duties could rein in inflation, though it would leave the government with an acute headache if it has to refund to companies the sums it has collected so far.
"Betting markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, currently assign a 32% and 28% chance, respectively, of the Supreme Court ruling in favor of
[the] tariffs, MarketWatch wrote earlier this week.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.13% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.3% | +0.04% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.74% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.61% | 5.75% | +0.04% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | -0.03% | +0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.06% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.14% | 6.17% | -0.04% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.23% | 5.27% | +0.03% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.07% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
As with all reports, it's the gap between what investors are expecting and what the actual figures show that moves markets and mortgage rates. But, for example, compared with forecasts, last Friday's jobs report brought both good and bad news that more or less canceled each other out, making it a damp squib.
Typically, better-than-expected figures cause mortgage rates to rise, while worse-than-expected numbers send them lower.
Comerica Bank's take
Comerica Bank's economics team gave its take on this week's reports in an e-newsletter:
"The CPI likely held steady in December after decelerating in November; the government shutdown seems to have caused issues with the measurement of inflation in late 2025 that likely overstate the recent improvement. Those same measurement issues will likely contribute to lower PPI inflation in the delayed reports for October and November. Retail sales were likely solid in November after a cool October, helped by auto sales starting to recover from October’s sharp declines. Brisk holiday season spending likely boosted core retail sales. Existing home sales likely rose in November as unseasonably strong listings brought buyers off of the sidelines; the median price of an existing home sold likely rose modestly in year-over-year terms. Industrial production likely rose in December as frigid weather boosted utilities production; manufacturing production was likely flat in the month."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. We doubt they'll move mortgage rates far, but, for the sake of completeness, they are:
- December industrial production — Markets expect 0.1% growth in output, worse than November's 0.2%
- December capacity utilization (the percentage of America's total productive capacity actually used) — Markets expect 76%, unchanged since November
- January home builder confidence index — Markets expect the index to be 40, better than December's 39
