The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.11% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.25%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.52%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.63%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely budged yesterday. And, as they're currently very low by multi-year standards, we count any day when they don't move higher as a win.
Usually, mortgage rates follow bond market trends and, in particular, shadow 10-year Treasury notes' yields. But those relationships have grown increasingly fuzzy recently.
One explanation is that lenders are overwhelmed by high demand for new mortgages and refinances, suggests Mortgage News Daily. "Mortgage applications increased 28.5 percent from one week earlier," says the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.
At times of unmanageable demand, lenders very occasionally keep mortgage rates artificially high to deter new borrowers whose business they can't cope with. It's been some years since we last wrote about this phenomenon elsewhere, but it seems to fit the current circumstances.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.13% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.3% | +0.04% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.74% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.61% | 5.75% | +0.04% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | -0.03% | +0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.06% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.14% | 6.17% | -0.04% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.23% | 5.27% | +0.03% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.07% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
As with all reports, it's the gap between what investors are expecting and what the actual figures show that moves markets and mortgage rates. But, for example, compared with forecasts, Friday's jobs report brought both good and bad news that more or less canceled each other out, making it a damp squib.
Typically, better-than-expected figures cause mortgage rates to rise, while worse-than-expected numbers send them lower.
Comerica Bank's take
Comerica Bank's economics team gave its take on this week's reports in an e-newsletter:
"The CPI likely held steady in December after decelerating in November; the government shutdown seems to have caused issues with the measurement of inflation in late 2025 that likely overstate the recent improvement. Those same measurement issues will likely contribute to lower PPI inflation in the delayed reports for October and November. Retail sales were likely solid in November after a cool October, helped by auto sales starting to recover from October’s sharp declines. Brisk holiday season spending likely boosted core retail sales. Existing home sales likely rose in November as unseasonably strong listings brought buyers off of the sidelines; the median price of an existing home sold likely rose modestly in year-over-year terms. Industrial production likely rose in December as frigid weather boosted utilities production; manufacturing production was likely flat in the month."
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But none usually moves mortgage rates far.
Still, for the sake of completeness, those reports are:
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Jan. 10 — Markets expect 215,000 claims, worse than the previous week's 208,000
- November import prices* — Markets expect those to fall by -0.2%, better than September's 0.0%
- January Empire State manufacturing survey — Markets expect the index to be 1.0, better than December's -3.9
- January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — Markets expect the index to be -4.5, better than December's -10.2
* One of the two mentioned above that just might affect mortgage rates, though probably minimally.
We'll be surprised if any of those have a noticeable effect on those rates.
