The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.11% yesterday, an increase of 0.08% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.25%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.5% yesterday, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.7%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, mortgage rates nudged modestly higher, killing hopes of an immediate drop below a 6% average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
That's not to say those rates couldn't fall below that mark later today or sometime soon. But Tuesday presented the most likely opportunity for a 5.x% rate in three years, so it was bound to be disappointing.
Yesterday's rise wasn't a result of that day's consumer price index. That showed the inflation rate staying much the same. No, it seemed to be the backwash from the previous day's trading in mortgage bonds.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.14% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.3% | +0.05% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.5% | 6.72% | +0.05% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.81% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.72% | +0.08% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.7% | 6.72% | +0.05% | +0.35% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.11% | -0.07% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.17% | 6.19% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.29% | +0.05% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | +0.03% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.85% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | -0.11% | -0.06% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
As with all reports, it's the gap between what investors are expecting and what the actual figures show that moves markets and mortgage rates. But, for example, compared with forecasts, Friday's jobs report brought both good and bad news that more or less canceled each other out, making it a damp squib.
Typically, better-than-expected figures cause mortgage rates to rise, while worse-than-expected numbers send them lower.
Comerica Bank's take
Comerica Bank's economics team gave its take on this week's reports in an e-newsletter:
"The CPI likely held steady in December after decelerating in November; the government shutdown seems to have caused issues with the measurement of inflation in late 2025 that likely overstate the recent improvement. Those same measurement issues will likely contribute to lower PPI inflation in the delayed reports for October and November. Retail sales were likely solid in November after a cool October, helped by auto sales starting to recover from October’s sharp declines. Brisk holiday season spending likely boosted core retail sales. Existing home sales likely rose in November as unseasonably strong listings brought buyers off of the sidelines; the median price of an existing home sold likely rose modestly in year-over-year terms. Industrial production likely rose in December as frigid weather boosted utilities production; manufacturing production was likely flat in the month."
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But retail sales and the PPI are by far the most likely to grab attention.
The PPI contains four headline figures. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (December), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, which measure from Jan. 1, 2025, to Dec. 31, 2025.
Why two for each period? Well, one figure (the PPI) for each reveals changes in prices for all items in the survey. The second ("core" PPI) records the same but excludes food and energy prices. Stripping out those items, which tend to be especially volatile, reveals the underlying inflation trend.
Here are what markets are expecting for the main PPI figure (there are no market expectations for the other three) and for retail sales:
- November PPI — Markets expect producer prices to rise by 0.3%, unchanged since September
- November retail sales – Markets expect retail sales to have risen by 0.4%, better than October's 0.0%
Remember, to stand a good chance of mortgage rates falling, we'd like to see lower numbers than markets are expecting today.
Today's two other reports may well not cause waves unless the main events barely create a ripple. And, even then, they're not reports that typically move mortgage rates far. They are:
- October business inventories — Markets expect 0.2% growth, unchanged since September
- December existing home sales — Markets expect 4.22 million annualized, up from November's 4.13%
