The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.03% yesterday, a decrease of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.2%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.46% yesterday, having dropped by 0.15. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.65%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Despite the endless reams of scary words written yesterday in financial pages about the threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve posed by an indictment of the Fed chair, markets seem to have shrugged off such worries. Either that, or Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are buying mortgage bonds in industrial quantities.
Mortgage rates are now hovering just above the 6% mark for 30-year fixed-rate loans. We shouldn't really compare ICanBuy's daily averages with Freddie Mac's weekly ones, but for purely illustrative purposes, the last time that rate was as low as it was last night was during a week in mid-September 2022.
With luck, this morning's consumer price index (CPI) for December will push mortgage rates even lower, perhaps below 6%. But be aware that the chances of it sending them higher are roughly the same. Scroll down to discover more about the CPI and how its figures might affect those rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.03% | 6.06% | -0.06% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.2% | 5.25% | -0.06% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | -0.15% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.77% | -0.05% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.5% | 5.65% | -0.11% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.65% | 6.66% | +0.05% | +0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.14% | 6.18% | +0.08% | +0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.13% | 6.16% | -0.02% | -0.21% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.2% | 5.24% | -0.02% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.43% | 6.64% | -0.13% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.82% | -0.08% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.15% | 6.19% | +0.06% | +0.05% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
As with all reports, it's the gap between what investors are expecting and what the actual figures show that moves markets and mortgage rates. Compared with forecasts, Friday's jobs report brought both good and bad news that more or less canceled each other out, making it a damp squib.
Typically, better-than-expected figures cause mortgage rates to rise, while worse-than-expected numbers send them lower.
This week's other potentially important reports are both scheduled for tomorrow. They're November's retail sales figures and the producer price index (PPI, another inflation report) for the same month. As always, we'll brief you more fully on all influential reports on the morning each is scheduled.
Comerica Bank's Take
"The CPI likely held steady in December after decelerating in November; the government shutdown seems to have caused issues with the measurement of inflation in late 2025 that likely overstate the recent improvement. Those same measurement issues will likely contribute to lower PPI inflation in the delayed reports for October and November. Retail sales were likely solid in November after a cool October, helped by auto sales starting to recover from October’s sharp declines. Brisk holiday season spending likely boosted core retail sales. Existing home sales likely rose in November as unseasonably strong listings brought buyers off of the sidelines; the median price of an existing home sold likely rose modestly in year-over-year terms. Industrial production likely rose in December as frigid weather boosted utilities production; manufacturing production was likely flat in the month."
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, all eyes will be on only one, the CPI, and the other three may well pass by unnoticed.
The CPI contains four headline figures. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (December), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, which measure from Jan. 1, 2025, to Dec. 31, 2025.
Why two for each period? Well, one figure (the CPI) for each reveals changes in prices for all items in the survey. The second ("core" CPI) records the same but excludes food and energy prices. Stripping out those items, which tend to be especially volatile, reveals the underlying inflation trend.
Here are what markets are expecting for those four figures:
- December CPI — Markets expect prices to rise by 0.3%, unchanged since November
- YOY CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 2.7%, unchanged since November
- December core CPI — Markets expect prices to rise by 0.3%, worse than November's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 2.8%, worse than November's 2.6%
Remember, to stand a good chance of mortgage rates falling, we'd like to see lower numbers than markets are expecting.
Today's three other reports may well not cause waves unless the CPI barely creates a ripple. And, even then, they're not reports that typically move mortgage rates far. They are:
- December's optimism index for independent businesses — Markets expect 99.0%, unchanged since November
- October new home sales — Markets expect 710,000, down from the previous 800,000 reported in August
- December budget deficit — Markets expect a $150 billion deficit, worse than November's $87 billion
