The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.09% today, a decrease of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.26%, down by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.61%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.6%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
All week, we've been saying that this morning's jobs report (aka employment situation report) contains the economic data most likely to move mortgage rates this month.
That's not always the case. A jobs report that comes in on or close to forecasts may barely cause a ripple. And sometimes another report, usually showing inflation rates, steals the crown.
But it's hard to overstate the potential this morning's figures have to set the tone for mortgage rates for weeks to come. So, scroll down to discover what markets are expecting and how different outcomes might affect those rates.
Speaking of which, mortgage rates have barely budged for some weeks. Yesterday, Freddie Mac put the weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 6.16%, almost imperceptibly higher than the 6.15% recorded over the previous Thursday-to-Thursday period.Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.09% | 6.12% | -0.09% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.31% | -0.09% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.68% | 5.82% | -0.05% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.61% | 5.76% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.6% | 6.61% | -0.04% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.11% | +0.03% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.18% | -0.08% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.22% | 5.26% | -0.11% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.77% | -0.03% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.9% | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.12% | +0.08% | -0.07% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, the December jobs report is the only one anyone cares about, and it's likely to overshadow the other two.
That report contains three headline data points:
- Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs created that month) — Markets expect 73,000 new jobs, better than November's 64,000
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect a rate of 4.5%, a little better than November's 4.6%
- Hourly wages — Markets expect wages to improve, growing by 0.3%, which is better than November's 0.1%
Typically, better-than-expected figures cause mortgage rates to rise, while worse-than-expected numbers send them lower.
So, for lower mortgage rates, we'd prefer to see fewer than 73,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate above 4.5%, and wage growth below 0.3%, all of which would suggest an under-performing labor market.
Today's other reports begin with October's housing starts and building permits, but these rarely affect mortgage rates, even on days when they're not overhadowed by star data. The January consumer sentiment index, which is expected to improve to 53.4 from 52.9 previously, is likely to have an impact only if the jobs report turns out to be a damp squib.
