The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.15% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.27%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.57%, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.6%, reflecting an increase of 0.18%.
The bigger picture
Bond markets that trade in U.S. Treasury bonds, notes, and bills have barely budged so far this year. For example, 10-year Treasury notes have peaked at 4.20% and fallen only as low as 4.17%.
This is relevant because mortgage rates tend to shadow those 10-year notes, with the two typically rising and falling in parallel. So, it's no surprise that mortgage rates have moved within a similarly tight range. Those for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages peaked at 6.18% and bottomed out at 6.15% over the same period.
You might be surprised by that, given the weekend's drama in Venezuela and subsequent fallout. But, yesterday afternoon, MarketWatch explained what's going on:
"The focus of the Treasury market is on upcoming economic data, particularly Friday’s jobs report, rather than the U.S. intervention in Venezuela," said MarketWatch's report. "Bond-market participants are prioritizing U.S. growth, inflation and Federal Reserve actions over geopolitical events like Venezuela, unless oil prices are significantly impacted."
Later yesterday evening, things changed a little. "US President Donald Trump has said Venezuela 'will be turning over' up to 50 million barrels of oil — worth about $2.8bn — to the US, after a military operation to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power," reports the BBC. By about 4 a.m. Eastern today, oil prices had fallen a little over 1%.
We've been stressing the potential impact of Friday's jobs report all week. But don't write off the probability of today's economic reports affecting mortgage rates, too. Scroll down to discover more about those reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.18% | -0.03% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.27% | 5.32% | -0.04% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | -0.05% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.68% | 5.83% | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.73% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.6% | 6.61% | +0.18% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.03% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.22% | -0.02% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | -0.04% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.73% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.05% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.04% | -0.02% | -0.09% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, only three of them are likely to move mortgage rates far. Those are the first three in the following bullet points.
One of these is December's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Both the sector and the source are the most influential for this type of report, so it's typically the star PMI each month.
Another of today's reports that might need a little explanation is November's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). JOLTS can provide a helpful peek under the hood of the labor market, though it's a month behind most other data.
Markets trade ahead of all key reports' publications based on investors' expectations, as informed by analysts' consensus forecasts. So mortgage rates tend to move in response to new data only when there's a gap between the forecast and the actual figures; the bigger the gap, the bigger the movement. Good news for the economy tends to exert upward pressure on those rates while bad news usually pushes them lower.
Today's reports comprise:
- December's ADP employment report (private sector only) — Markets expect 48,000 new jobs, much better than November's -32,000
- December's ISM services PMI — Markets expect a slightly worse 52.2%, down from November's 52.6%
- November's JOLTS — Markets expect 7.6 million job openings, a little worse than October's 7.7 million
- October's factory orders — Markets expect a fall of 1.2%, following September's rise of 0.2%
