The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.03% yesterday, an increase of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.3%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.5% yesterday, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.51%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Phew! Yesterday, we were worried that Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report might push stock prices and mortgage rates higher. However, it wasn't to be.
"With Nvidia effectively scoring the final points of the fourth-quarter earnings season with an impressive beat and robust outlook, investors
are likely to move toward a closer assessment of the risks that continue to linger over a stock market that has failed to get out of second gear
since late October," said Barron's at lunchtime yesterday.
So, the average top-tier mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan inched up to 6.03% from 6.01% on Wednesday evening, according to ICanBuy. And Mortgage News Daily reckons they held steady at 6.00%.
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac yesterday put the latest weekly average at 5.98%. "For the first time in three and a half years, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped into the 5% range, falling even lower than last week's milestone," said Sam Khater, Freddie’s chief economist, in an e-mailed statement. “This rate, combined with the improving availability of homes for sale, is meaningful and will drive more potential buyers into the market for the spring homebuying season.”
Today's inflation report is the producer price index (PPI). It could affect mortgage rates, but we're not expecting more than modest movements
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.03% | 6.06% | +0.01% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.3% | 5.35% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.5% | 6.72% | +0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.59% | 5.73% | +0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.57% | 5.72% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.51% | 6.52% | +-0% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.88% | 5.91% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.1% | 6.12% | +0.02% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.31% | 5.34% | +0.01% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | +0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.75% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.85% | 5.88% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of this week's economic reports
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave its take on this week's economic reports:
"Benchmark house price indexes likely slowed at the end of 2025, closing the year with increases in the one-to-two percent range. Housing is still expensive, but affordability is improving as prices rise at a slower pace than incomes or household wealth. House prices will likely continue to rise at a modest pace in 2026. Their relative stability in recent years is making a helpful contribution to lower core inflation."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports (including a double) on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The one most likely to affect mortgage rates is the producer price index (PPI), but it would have to contain some shocking figures to trigger significant changes. It measures price changes at factory gates and in the wholesale and distribution phases of the supply chain. So, it is nothing like as important as the consumer price index CPI) or the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
Like other price indices, the PPI addresses two flavors of inflation. First, it measures price changes for all goods and services in the survey. Secondly, it excludes food and energy prices from that total to determine "core" inflation. It provides both those for the reporting month and as year-over-year (YOY) figures. But MarketWatch considers the latter too unimportant to justify forecasts.
So, here are the two January figures, together with those forecasts, which are market expectations:
- January PPI — Markets expect price rises to have slowed to 0.3%, compared with 0.5% in December
- January core PPI — Markets expect price rises to have risen by 0.4%, unchanged since December
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. For inflation reports, those rates are likely to fall on lower-than-expected numbers.
Today's two other reports are:
- Construction spending in November and December — Markets expect spending to have slowed in November to 0.2% from 0.5% in October. They expect December growth to be the same 0.2%
- Chicago business barometer for February (a purchasing managers' index) — No forecast
Next week brings more influential reports than this week. But it will likely be dominated by next Friday's jobs report for February.
