The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.01% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.29%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.5%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.49%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
The weekly average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans came in at 6.01%, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey, published yesterday. That's very close to last night's daily average, which I Can Buy puts at 6.00%.
"Mortgage rates dropped again this week, now down to their lowest level since September of 2022,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in an email statement. "This lower rate environment is not only improving affordability for prospective homebuyers, it’s also strengthening the financial position of homeowners. Over the past year, refinance application activity has more than doubled, enabling many recent buyers to reduce their annual mortgage payments by thousands of dollars."
Today's economic data
We're due a small avalanche of economic reports this morning, two or three of which might move mortgage rates. The most consequential ones are the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation (the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for December) and gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4/25). Today's preliminary figure for February's consumer sentiment index might also have an impact.Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.01% | 6.04% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.29% | 5.34% | +0.01% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.5% | 6.72% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | +0.02% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.59% | 5.74% | -0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.49% | 6.51% | +0% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.92% | 5.95% | -0.02% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.08% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | -0.01% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.47% | 6.68% | +0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.78% | +0.02% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.92% | 5.95% | +0% | -0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
Here's the weekly preview from Comerica Bank's economics team from its Monday e-newsletter:
"The first estimate of fourth quarter real GDP will likely report robust output growth, a welcome contrast with last year’s anemic job creation. Both total and core PCE inflation likely picked up slightly in December from November and continue to overshoot the Fed’s two percent target. Personal income and spending likely grew slower in December. Delayed construction and house sales data for November and December will likely show the housing market holding steady at year-end; activity should pick up in 2026 as the rate cuts the Fed made in late 2025 boost demand. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey will likely be revised lower in the February final release to echo The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®, which hit the lowest in over ten years in January.
"The minutes of the Fed’s January decision will likely show policymakers setting a higher bar for rate cuts in 2026 than in 2025. Since the January jobs report was stronger than expected and PCE inflation is forecast to hold above the Fed’s target, the central bank will likely hold rates steady until Chair Powell’s term ends in May."
Comerica's forecasts often differ from market expectations, which are based on a broader range of forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are six main economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But only three are likely to have much effect on mortgage rates.
And two of those are appearing later than they normally would, owing to the 2025 government shutdown. So, there's a risk that markets will see them as too stale to pay much attention to.
One of those is the PCE price index, the most accurate of all consumer inflation reports. Like other price indices, this contains four main figures. Two track changes in prices during the reporting month (December), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers that cover the period between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2025.
One for each period measures price changes for all items in the survey. The other is "core" PCE, which measures the same items, excluding prices for food and energy.
Today's four PCE numbers are:
- December PCE — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.3% that month, more quickly than November's 0.2%
- December core PCE — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.3% that month, more quickly than November's 0.2%
- YOY PCE — Markets expect prices to have risen by 2.8% that month, unchanged since November
- YOY core PCE — Markets expect prices to have risen by 3.0% that month, more quickly than November's 2.8%
Today's two other potentially influential reports are:
- GDP Q4/25 (first estimate of three) — Markets expect GDP to have risen by 2.5%, more slowly than Q3's 4.4%
- February consumer sentiment (first reading) — Markets expect this to come in at 57.3, unchanged since January
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. For inflation data, lower is always preferable for those rates.
Today's other reports would likely need to contain shocking numbers in order to move mortgage rates more than a little. These include two preliminary purchasing managers' indices from S&P Global, one for the services sector and the other for the manufacturing sector. The other reports new home sales in November and December.
Next week's economic reports are likely to be dull, with only February's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, looking likely to affect mortgage rates.
