The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.01% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.29%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.51%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.49%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Average mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans inched higher yesterday, leaving Tuesday evening's 5.99% as a fond memory, according to I Can Buy. But they could easily move lower again in the coming days — or shift higher.
There's really no way to predict these things. And Friday's calendar brings two economic reports that have the potential to move mortgage rates appreciably.Next week is very light on important economic reports, which makes rate volatility less likely. However, just because there are few interesting scheduled events doesn't mean mortgage rates will stay steady.
There is always the chance of unscheduled news emerging that affects them: the declaration of a new trade war, for example.
Fed minutes
Yesterday's publication by the Federal Reserve of the minutes of its rate-setting committee's January meeting didn't tell markets what they wanted to hear. And we were lucky that mortgage rates didn't move higher in their wake.
"Several participants said further downward adjustments to rates would likely be appropriate if inflation declines in line with their expectations," reported Barron's. "A greater number argued it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady 'for some time' as the committee assesses incoming data. A number of those officials said additional easing might not be warranted until there is clear indication that disinflation is firmly back on track." There was even talk of possible rate hikes.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.01% | 6.03% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.29% | 5.33% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.51% | 6.72% | +0.03% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.6% | 5.74% | +0.02% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.6% | 5.74% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.49% | 6.51% | +0% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.94% | 5.97% | +0.08% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.04% | 6.07% | +-0% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | +0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.45% | 6.67% | +0.02% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.77% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.92% | 5.94% | +0.01% | -0.22% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
Here's the weekly preview from Comerica Bank's economics team from its Monday e-newsletter:
"The first estimate of fourth quarter real GDP will likely report robust output growth, a welcome contrast with last year’s anemic job creation. Both total and core PCE inflation likely picked up slightly in December from November and continue to overshoot the Fed’s two percent target. Personal income and spending likely grew slower in December. Delayed construction and house sales data for November and December will likely show the housing market holding steady at year-end; activity should pick up in 2026 as the rate cuts the Fed made in late 2025 boost demand. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey will likely be revised lower in the February final release to echo The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®, which hit the lowest in over ten years in January.
"The minutes of the Fed’s January decision will likely show policymakers setting a higher bar for rate cuts in 2026 than in 2025. Since the January jobs report was stronger than expected and PCE inflation is forecast to hold above the Fed’s target, the central bank will likely hold rates steady until Chair Powell’s term ends in May."
Comerica's forecasts often differ from market expectations, which are based on a broader range of forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three main economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But it's rare for them to have much effect on mortgage rates.
They are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 14 — Markets expect 223,000, slightly fewer than the previous week's 227,000
- December trade deficit — Markets expect this to narrow slightly to $56 billion, down from November's $56.8 billion
- February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — Markets expect the index to worsen, falling to 10 from January's 12
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected.
Tomorrow's economic reports include gross domestic product data and the PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. So, things could get lively on Friday.
