The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.02% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.21%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.49% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.51%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
For the first time in years, mortgage rates today for 30-year fixed-rate loans stand an excellent chance of dipping below 6%, in our opinion.
We can't promise that they will — nor that they'll stay there long if they do — but the chances are somewhere between a strong possibility and a probability.
Last Friday's fall, which pulled them down to their current low, was driven by that day's consumer price index (CPI), which showed prices rising at their slowest pace in years. However, we should remember Comerica Bank's warning that we shared with you last week:
"CPI inflation likely slowed in January, but the improvement should be read with a grain of salt: The 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of some price surveys, making CPI look unrealistically low now," said the bank's economic team in an e-newsletter early last week. "The CPI will likely move a notch higher in April when the government’s statisticians fill the gaps in the data."
This week's economic reports aren't typically as influential as last week's. However, tomorrow, we're due the minutes of January's meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. And Friday's calendar contains both the most accurate (though currently not very accurate) gauge of inflation (the PCE price index) and a reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic report, including its possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.02% | 6.05% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.21% | 5.25% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.71% | +0% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.74% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.73% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.51% | 6.52% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.86% | 5.89% | +0% | -0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.09% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.15% | 5.19% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | +0% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.76% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.88% | 5.91% | +0% | -0.28% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
Here's the weekly preview from Comerica Bank's economics team from its Monday e-newsletter:
"The first estimate of fourth quarter real GDP will likely report
robust output growth, a welcome contrast with last year’s anemic job
creation. Both total and core PCE inflation likely picked up slightly in
December from November and continue to overshoot the Fed’s two percent
target. Personal income and spending likely grew slower in December.
Delayed construction and house sales data for November and December will
likely show the housing market holding steady at year-end; activity
should pick up in 2026 as the rate cuts the Fed made in late 2025 boost
demand. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey will likely be
revised lower in the February final release to echo The Conference
Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®, which hit the lowest in over ten
years in January.
"The minutes of the Fed’s January decision
will likely show policymakers setting a higher bar for rate cuts in 2026
than in 2025. Since the January jobs report was stronger than expected
and PCE inflation is forecast to hold above the Fed’s target, the
central bank will likely hold rates steady until Chair Powell’s term
ends in May."
Comerica's forecasts often differ from market expectations, which are based on a broader range of forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But it's rare for either of them to have a perceptible effect on mortgage rates.
They are:
- February Empire State manufacturing survey — Markets expect the index to improve to 10.0 from January's 7.7
- February Home builder confidence index — Markets expect the index to inch up to 38 from January's
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. But today's numbers are unlikely to have a measurable impact.
