The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.02% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.21%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.49%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.51%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates improved yesterday, closing at their lowest level since Jan. 12. Stock markets had a bad day, and the change might reflect money moving from risky but exciting stocks to relatively secure but dull bonds.
When bond prices rise, say on higher demand, their yields fall. And mortgage rates are largely determined by the yields on mortgage bonds, aka mortgage-backed securities.
This morning brings the month's most consequential inflation report, the consumer price index (CPI). Indeed, most months, it's the second-most important economic report of all.
So, it certainly has the potential to move mortgage rates significantly. Whether or not it does will depend on the width of the gap between today's actual figures and what markets were expecting before publication.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic report, including its possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.21% | 5.25% | -0.06% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.71% | -0.02% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.74% | -0.01% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.73% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.51% | 6.52% | -0.05% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.86% | 5.89% | -0.08% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.09% | -0.02% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.15% | 5.19% | -0.09% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | +-0% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.76% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.88% | 5.91% | +0.02% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economic team gave its preview of the week ahead:
"Payrolls growth likely picked up in January after disappointing during last year’s holiday season. Downward revisions in the annual “benchmark revisions” will probably dominate this week’s economic headlines, but are largely old news—the revisions are to job growth between March 2024 and March 2025, and provide no new information about more recent trends. The unemployment rate likely edged higher in January. Retail sales likely grew solidly in December as new car sales rose; consumers sound ornery in surveys, but are still spending.
"CPI inflation likely slowed in January, but the improvement should be read with a grain of salt: The 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of some price surveys, making CPI look unrealistically low now. The CPI will likely move a notch higher in April when the government’s statisticians fill the gaps in the data."
These predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on different forecasts from a broader range of experts.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And the CPI is a humdinger.
Price indices have four headline figures. Two are for the reporting month (January, in this case), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, today meaning Feb. 1, 2025, to Jan. 31, 2026.
One for each period covers vanilla CPI: price changes for all the goods and services included in the survey. The other measures the same price differences but excludes food and energy prices, which are often volatile. By taking out that volatility, economists reckon they can better spot underlying inflation trends. Note Comerica's warning of iffy data, above.
Here are the four headline figures for January, with market expectations for today's data:
- January CPI — Markets expect 0.3% growth in prices, unchanged from December
- YOY CPI — Markets expect 2.5% growth in prices, modestly cooler than December's 2.7%
- January core CPI — Markets expect 0.3% growth in core prices, modestly warmer than December's 0.2%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect 2.5% growth in core prices, modestly cooler than December's 2.6%
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. With inflation reports, we want numbers below market expectations to stand a good chance of lower mortgage rates.
We should repeat a recent warning from The Wall Street Journal about today's CPI. "Many on Wall Street are bracing for an unpleasant surprise. In recent years, inflation in January has tended to come in relatively hot," The Journal said in an article headlined Why Inflation May Be About to Come in Hot. "Last year, the consumer price index, which tracks the cost of a basket of goods and services, rose more in January than in any other month. The same thing happened in 2023. January wasn’t the hottest month for inflation in 2024, but it was close."
The Journal may well be proved wrong today. Such predictions are always highly speculative. But you should be aware of its warning.
Next Monday
Markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, so we'll be taking the day off and will be back early on Tuesday morning.
